Here’s where I post my Mug Betting selections and track the progress of the experiment.

 

Will I earn a profit from Mug Betting on every Premier League fixture?


► Mug Betting Progress — Complete!

ROI: +3.77%
After comm ROI: +0.00%

 

► What exactly is Mug Betting?

Mug Betting is the act of betting without any advantage or ‘edge’. We associate Mug Bets with Punters that lose money to the Bookies.

I believe in betting with a mathematically proven edge. I wouldn’t usually place any bets unless I felt that it was somehow justified. But I haven’t ever proved that intuition alone can’t find value. I just haven’t seen sufficient evidence that anyone earns a living by simply backing what’s inside their head. Have you?

We all know a bloke, or guy on Twitter who claims to “smash the bookies”. He might have hot streaks. He might be smarter at betting than others. But do these blokes ever quit their jobs and make long-term money from betting?

Who knows. For most people betting — and even bragging about their winnings — is just a bit of fun. Nonetheless, i’m intrigued to find out how well I can do by backing one selection in every remaining Premier League fixture this season whilst i’m equipped with only one tool: my opinion.

 

► Mug Bets — The Experiment

There will be no pre-match mathematical analysis, or use of trading techniques. I’m simply backing Premier League selections I think are good value, at an equal £5 stake. I will use the Betfair exchange Match Odds market to ensure I obtain the best available odds at the time of betting; I wouldn’t dare use Bookmakers for this. I’ll post up my selections well before the match-day.

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Here’s what I hope to answer:

  1. Just how well can I fair by relying solely on my intuition and knowledge of Premier League football?
  2. Will my knowledge of value betting prove to be advantageous, or will it be worthless without proper analysis?
  3. What kind of expectations should Mug Punters have when betting on multiple fixtures over the course of a season?
  4. Can I remain unbiased in my selections despite my allegiance to Spurs?
EXPECTATIONS: I expect that my Mug Bets will break even. The reality could be a lot better. Or much worse. Stay tuned...

 

Week-by-Week Updates


► WEEK 27 SELECTIONS (15/05/2017)
  • Chelsea v Watford: HOME (1.28)
  • Arsenal v Sunderland: HOME (1.11) — absolutely awful odds. I can’t really justifying betting on any other outcome though.
  • Man City v West Brom: DRAW (10.0) — City should win, but I still think West Brom will make it difficult for them. A draw is possible.
  • Southampton v Man United: DRAW (3.4)
  • Leicester v Spurs: AWAY (1.92) — Spurs have held in the same position for 2 years and they’ll want to highlight this to the previous champions Leicester.
  • Arsenal v Everton: AWAY (7.4) — at these odds Everton still look attractive, despite what this game means to Arsenal.
  • Burnley v West Ham: HOME (2.36)
  • Chelsea v Sunderland: HOME (1.16) — 2 teams with nothing to play for. One is a lot better than the other.
  • Hull v Spurs: AWAY (1.72)
  • Leicester v Bournemouth: AWAY (4.4)
  • Liverpool v Middlesbrough: HOME (1.17)
  • Man United v Crystal Palace: DRAW (3.7) — United won’t get top 4, so Palace could enjoy a good point here.
  • Southampton v Stoke: AWAY (4.9)
  • Swansea v West Brom: DRAW (3.5)
  • Watford v Man City: AWAY (1.39)

Week Profit/Loss = -£1.75 (-0.00% ROI)

Running Profit/Loss = £46.40 (+3.43% ROI)

And that's a wrap! The Mug bets (just about) stayed in profit over a whopping 270 equal-stake bets of £5. The final week encapsulates the experiment: frequent wins, but still no overall payoff. The odds are sharp - and this experiment is testament to that. Thanks to everyone who followed.

► WEEK 26 SELECTIONS (10/05/2017)
  • Southampton v Arsenal: AWAY (2.22) — I think there’s a good chance that Arsenal will get top 4 (unfortunately). It’s vital they put pressure on Liverpool now.
  • Everton v Watford: DRAW (4.8) — didn’t see value in the home win here. Everton are far superior, but still liable to drop points.
  • West Brom v Chelsea: AWAY (1.4) — Chelsea will win the title here.
  • Man City v Leicester: AWAY (12.0) — its an odd selection, but the odds are attractive. No pressure on Leicester, either.
  • Bournemouth v Burnley: AWAY (4.1) — tight game, i think. Odds for Burnley look decent here.
  • Middlesbrough v Southampton: AWAY (2.08)
  • Sunderland v Swansea: HOME (4.2) — they’ve demonstrated the want to get started on next season. They might want to cause an upset here — if only for the loyal home crowd.
  • Stoke v Arsenal: DRAW (4.2) — damn, i wanted to back Arsenal. The odds weren’t great so i’ve had to go for a draw here. But hey, maybe it’s about that time we hear from the WengerOut lot again?
  • Crystal Palace v Hull: HOME (2.14)
  • West Ham v Liverpool: DRAW (4.1) — I feel that Liverpool will make hard work of getting top 4. Or they’ll bottle it and let Arsenal in. Odds for the draw look ok here.
  • Spurs v Man United: HOME (1.75) — Last game at WHL, in a unbeaten run at the stadium. No pressure on Spurs. This one’s for the fans. COYS.

Week Profit/Loss = -£7.05 (-12.82% ROI)

Running Profit/Loss = £48.15 (+3.77% ROI)

255 bets placed now. Looks as if i'm going to hold on and keep this in profit by the end of the season. But hopefully this experiment inspires some of you not to think you can beat the exchange by making unfounded selections. At the very least i've shown that you need not lose large sums of cash when gambling over a long period of time. Stay rigid.

► Week 25 Selections (01/05/2017)
  • Watford v Liverpool: DRAW (4.5) — I’m not convinced there’s value in Liverpool at 1.61. This is a selection where I don’t feel overly comfortable backing any of the outcomes at the prices available.
  • West Ham v Spurs: AWAY (1.45) — don’t realistically see any other outcome on this one.
  • Man City v Crystal Palace: HOME (1.27)
  • Bournemouth v Stoke: HOME (2.26)
  • Sunderland v Hull: AWAY (1.5) — wow, such poor odds. But I do think Sunderland are deflated. And will the players really up their game for Moyes and the fans? I doubt it.
  • Burnley v West Brom: HOME (2.28)
  • Leicester v Watford: HOME (1.61)
  • Swansea v Everton: AWAY (2.7)
  • Liverpool v Southampton: DRAW (4.3)
  • Arsenal v Man United: AWAY (3.8) — massive game, and I feel that United might help put the nail in the coffin for Arsenal’s top 4 fight.
  • Chelsea v Middlesbrough: HOME (1.18) — unless there’s a red card and a penalty I can’t see a scenario where Middlesbrough get any points!

Week Profit/Loss = -£13.20 (-24.00% ROI)

Running Profit/Loss = £55.20 (+4.52% ROI)

Clinging on a bit now! But I don't feel hard done by this week. The odds felt tight this week. Nothing really jumped out at me.

► Week 24 Selections (27/04/2017)
  • Man City v Man United: AWAY (4.8) — you can’t rely on City to win the games they’re expected to. I think United at these odds isn’t a bad shout.
  • West Brom v Leicester: DRAW (3.45)
  • Southampton v Hull: AWAY (5.9)
  • Stoke v West Ham: HOME (2.16) — I think West Ham will make it hard on themselves to ensure 100% safety.
  • Sunderland v Bournemouth: AWAY (2.4)
  • Crystal Palace v Burnley: HOME (1.83) — Palace didn’t play bad against Spurs. If they carry that performance over I think they’ll get at least a point.
  • Man United v Swansea: DRAW (4.9) — with United’s injuries I’m not sure that backing the home win is value. Swansea could go there looking for a point.
  • Everton v Chelsea: AWAY (2.08) — this game is a huge step to securing the title. They’ll surely win.
  • Middlesbrough v Man City: AWAY (1.32) — this isn’t the most enticing bet, to be honest.
  • Spurs v Arsenal: HOME (1.89) — i’m trying not to let my heart rule my head. But Spurs are a better side, and have so much at stake. In the last derby at WHL Spurs are likely to come out winners.

Week Profit/Loss = +£6.35 (+12.70% ROI)

Running Profit/Loss = £68.40 (+5.87% ROI)

There were a lot of goaless draws this week, which didn't help. The odds feel and look (from the results) very tight/accurate. It's easy to remain flat week-on-week. I'm not seeing any real advantage that my bets have. That said, what makes the challenge so difficult is that i'm not discarding any bets - and this was a week where I would've liked to skip several games. Still, a small profit is an OK result.

► Week 23 Selections (22/04/2017)
  • Hull v Watford: AWAY (4.5)
  • Swansea v Stoke: HOME (2.26) — I think they’ll be more up for the match.
  • Bournemouth v Middlesbrough: HOME (1.9) — Middlesbrough look relegated to me.
  • West Ham v Everton: AWAY (2.24) — these odds aren’t brilliant, but Everton are a much better side. I think they’ll win, fighting for the Europa spot.
  • Burnley v Man United: AWAY (1.6) — I don’t think these odds are bad at all. And this means a lot to United’s top 4 chances.
  • Liverpool v Crystal Palace: DRAW (4.8) — Liverpool drop a lot of points in games like this. And they’ve shaded wins they ought to have enough quality to coast. If they drew this game I wouldn’t be shocked.
  • Chelsea v Southampton: HOME (1.45) — with everything to play for I don’t see Chelsea slipping.
  • Middlesbrough v Sunderland: DRAW (3.5)
  • Arsenal v Leicester: DRAW (4.5) — the hype of the Semi Final win might not carry through in the Premier League.
  • Crystal Palace v Spurs: DRAW (4.3) —  we’ve seen how well Palace have done under pressure. They shouldn’t beat Spurs — but I feel that Spurs are due to drop points, especially after the disappointment in the semi final.

Week Profit/Loss = -£13.95 (-27.9% ROI)

Running Profit/Loss = +£62.05 (+5.57% ROI)

Oh dear. I feel a bit hard done by that once again I've made a decent call (in this case Liverpool dropping points) but went for the wrong selection. Arsenal scored a ridiculously lucky goal to win 1-0, and that ought to have been a Draw. It's a fine line. I'm expecting a positive move before the end of the season - but is that just wishful thinking?

► Week 22 Selections (15/04/2017)
  • Spurs v Bournemouth: HOME (1.3) I think Spurs will continue their home winning streak.
  • Crystal Palace v Leicester: HOME (1.84) big game for Palace. I think they’ll pick up the 3 points.
  • Sunderland v West Ham: AWAY (2.36)
  • Everton v Burnley: HOME (1.48)
  • Stoke v Hull: HOME (2.0)
  • Watford v Swansea: AWAY (3.5)
  • Man United v Chelsea: HOME (2.82) — I fancy United to do it. Chelsea aren’t invincible and Mourinho has a point to prove.
  • Southampton v Man City: AWAY (1.81) — I think these odds are decent considering City need to cement their top 4 place.
  • West Brom v Liverpool: AWAY (1.92) — good odds, I think.
  • Middlesbrough v Arsenal: AWAY (1.6) — despite their recent form, Arsenal should still win this game.

Week Profit/Loss = +£14.65 (29.60% ROI)

Running Profit/Loss = +£76.00 (+7.13% ROI)

A decent week - although picking so many winners wasn't that rewarding. The teams that were expected to win, generally did.

► Week 21 Selections (08/04/2017)
  • Spurs v Watford: DRAW (6.2) — I think Spurs are due a draw. Again, can’t see Watford beating them at WHL.
  • Stoke v Liverpool: AWAY (1.4) — not great odds, but I think they’ll do it.
  • Middlesbrough v Burnley: AWAY (3.4)
  • West Ham v Swansea: HOME (2.16) West Ham will do enough to survive (this season). Games like this they might grind out.
  • West Brom v Southampton: HOME (3.15) at home I think these are good odds.
  • Man City v Hull: HOME (1.22)
  • Bournemouth v Chelsea: AWAY (1.56)
  • Sunderland v Man United: DRAW (5.4) — United might have some talent, but don’t have the mentality to ‘guarantee wins’.
  • Everton v Leicester: DRAW (4.0) — this could go any way. But has the makings of a close one.
  • Crystal Palace v Arsenal: DRAW (4.0) — Palace need this. They know Arsenal aren’t invincible.

Week Profit/Loss = -£18.30 (-36.60% ROI)

Running Profit/Loss = +£61.35 (+6.04% ROI)

Once again, I made the shout that the underdog would over-perform - but I got the selection wrong (Palace). What we're seeing is how the variance (swings) even themselves out over time. At this rate my initial prediction of "break even" is on the cards...

► Week 20 Selections (04/04/2017)
  • Burnley v Stoke: HOME (2.5)
  • Leicester v Sunderland: DRAW (4.5) — Sunderland are totally doomed this season. But for me Leicester aren’t as good as their odds suggest.
  • Watford v West Brom: AWAY (3.4) — West Brom are more than capable of winning this fixture.
  • Man United v Everton: AWAY (6.8) — can’t help but think that United won’t gain the consistency they want.
  • Arsenal v West Ham: DRAW (5.3) — Billic needs a good result, so does Wenger. A draw could happen.
  • Hull v Middlesbrough: AWAY (4.2) — it should be close, yet Hull are strong favourites.
  • Southampton v Crystal Palace: AWAY (4.9) —  for me this was a no-brainer. Southampton aren’t that great, and Palace will have the confidence to take on any one at the moment. A win also means more to Palace.
  • Swansea v Spurs: AWAY (1.74)
  • Chelsea v Man City: HOME (2.42) — I don’t see City causing an upset.
  • Liverpool v Bournemouth: AWAY (9.6) — for me Liverpool being 1.4 against a team they lost to earlier this season (amongst others) seems a little excessive.

Week Profit/Loss = -£16.70 (-33.40% ROI)

Running Profit/Loss = £0.00 (+8.25% ROI)

West Ham are really making hard work of staying safe! It's a little unlucky to make the observations that United and Liverpool were likely to drop points - but yet again I didn't make the right selection. I'm due a good result.

► Week 19 Selections (01/04/2017)
  • Liverpool v Everton: AWAY (6.0) — Everton have played well of late. Liverpool are unpredictable at times. I don’t think this derby is as one sided as the odds suggest.
  • Burnley v Spurs: DRAW (4.1) — I went to the home game this season at WHL. Of the bottom half teams, only Burnley really have given Spurs a tough match.
  • Chelsea v Crystal Palace: DRAW (6.0) — can’t help but think that Chelsea won’t always beat teams by 1 goal. There’s got to be some ‘give’.
  • Hull v West Ham: HOME (2.48)
  • Leicester v Stoke: AWAY (4.1) — Stoke have been the better team so far this season.
  • Man United v West Brom: AWAY (13.5) — United have came close to losing some winnable games at Old Trafford. I fancy West Brom to give it a good go.
  • Watford v Sunderland: AWAY (4.8) — Watford haven’t impressed me much. I think Sunderland could do it.
  • Southampton v Bournemouth: DRAW (4.0)
  • Swansea v Middlesbrough: AWAY (4.2) — this could go either way, so the odds don’t look bad.
  • Arsenal v Man City: HOME (3.2) — I really wanted to bet on City. I think City will win. But 3.2 for Arsenal at home seems exaggerated. I think at home Arsenal are fairly balanced with City.

Week Profit/Loss = -£17.60 (-35.20% ROI)

Running Profit/Loss = £96.35 (+10.53% ROI)

Results didn't go my way - but would have done well for backing/laying on Betfair. Particularly on the Chelsea, United, and Arsenal fixtures. The ROI is now at a level I believe is reasonable and achievable. Where will it go from here? Will I keep it in the green?

► Week 18 Selections (18/03/2017)
  • West Brom v Arsenal: AWAY (1.79)
  • Crystal Palace v Watford: AWAY (4.8) — Watford have been the better side this season, so the odds must reflect the fact that Palace need the win more? For me the value is still Watford.
  • Everton v Hull: AWAY (7.4) — they’ve been good of late, but I don’t buy into Everton too much. I think they’re still capable of losing winnable games like these.
  • Stoke v Chelsea: AWAY (1.64)
  • Sunderland v Burnley: HOME (2.6)
  • West Ham v Leicester: AWAY (3.35) — close one to call. Fancy Leicester to fight for the 3 points. It means a lot for them at this stage.
  • Bournemouth v Swansea: DRAW (3.55)
  • Middlesbrough v Man United: AWAY (1.75)
  • Spurs v Southampton: DRAW (3.95) — Spurs are due a ‘bad’ result. I don’t feel it will be a loss at WHL. But a draw could easily happen.
  • Man City v Liverpool: AWAY (3.95) — not so convincing against Burnley last weekend, but Liverpool are very unpredictable. I think they’ll turn up and win this.

Week Profit/Loss = -£16.30 (-32.60% ROI)

Running Profit/Loss = £113.95 (+13.17% ROI)

Some pretty close calls. Liverpool could've won, Spurs could've drawn. I'm seeing that the results are 'evening' themselves out following a winning spell. +13.17% is still on the high side and not a bad position after 175 bets.

► Week 17 Selections (11/03/2017)
  • Man City v Stoke: HOME (1.25) — City need to maintain pressure at the top. I don’t see them losing or drawing to Stoke.
  • Bournemouth v West Ham: HOME (2.7) these odds aren’t bad. I fancy them to win this.
  • Everton v West Brom: AWAY (5.9) — I think Everton will win. But at these odds, i think West Brom are value. They’re only 4 points off Everton.
  • Hull v Swansea: AWAY (3.1) — I feel that momentum is with Swansea. I think they’ll contribute to Hull’s plight.
  • Liverpool v Burnley: AWAY (15.0) — I say it a lot, but Burnley are underrated.

NOTE: FA Cup fixtures means less Premier League matches.

Week Profit/Loss = -£11.50 (-46.00% ROI)

Running Profit/Loss = +£130.25 (+15.98% ROI)

The Hull v Swansea relegation battle didn't go the way I predicted. Burnley had the better of Liverpool for most the game but Can's goal was class. Not my week - but not very many games to go by, either.

► Week 16 Selections (04/03/2017)
  • Man United v Bournemouth: AWAY (14.0) — at these odds I think Bournemouth are decent value.
  • West Brom v Crystal Palace: HOME (2.38) — don’t fancy Palace to go on a winning spree any time soon. Especially against solid teams like West Brom.
  • Burnley v Swansea: AWAY (2.04)
  • Watford v Southamption: AWAY (2.02)
  • Leicester v Hull: HOME (1.84) — capable of losing, but they have the ‘boost’ of a new manager.
  • Stoke v Middlesbrough: HOME (2.08)
  • Liverpool v Arsenal: DRAW (3.6) — should be tight.
  • Spurs v Everton: HOME (1.68) — Spurs are stronger. If they turn up then Everton will have difficulty.
  • Sunderland v Man City: DRAW (6.4) — City are well capable of a poor result here.
  • West Ham v Chelsea: AWAY (1.66) — can’t see any other outcome than an away win.

Week Profit/Loss = +£6.60 (13.20% ROI)

Running Profit/Loss = +£141.75 (+17.94% ROI)

I felt there was value in Bournemouth - shame I didn't go for the draw. Still, this week evens out last week's minor loss.

► Week 15 Selections (18/02/2017)
  • Spurs v Stoke: HOME (1.4) — a bad patch for Spurs, but Stoke shouldn’t be the first team to beat them at WHL this season.
  • Crystal Palace v Middlesbrough: AWAY (4.2) — fancy Palace to win, but the odds don’t offer much value for me. ‘Away’ it is.
  • Chelsea v Swansea: DRAW (6.4) — admittedly, I wasn’t comfortable making any selection on this. I think the draw is feasible given Swansea’s recent performances.
  • Everton v Sunderland: AWAY (9.2) — fancy Sunderland to put in a good performance in a bid to save their lives.
  • Hull v Burnley: AWAY (3.85)
  • West Brom v Bournemouth: DRAW (3.45)
  • Watford v West Ham: HOME (2.7) — two pretty even opponents. But Watford might edge this one.
  • Leicester v Liverpool: HOME (5.9) — you’ve got to fancy Liverpool – but they aren’t reliable. Leicester need a result now. Makings of a good fixture.

NOTE: 2 fixtures have been postponed.

Week Profit/Loss = -£3.50 (-0.09% ROI)

Running Profit/Loss = +£135.15 (+18.26% ROI)

The Leicester selection was a good one. But there were too many other ambitious selections to generate a profit this week.

► Week 14 Selections (11/02/2017)
  • Arsenal v Hull: DRAW (6.4) — didn’t see value in Arsenal on this one
  • Man United v Watford: DRAW (6.8) 
  • Middlesbrough v Everton: HOME (3.85) — Everton are favourites, but aren’t particularly consistent
  • Stoke v Crystal Palace: AWAY (3.9)
  • Sunderland v Southampton: HOME (3.95) — Sunderland are fighting for their lives. It’s a tough, but winnable game for them.
  • West Ham v West Brom: AWAY (3.75) — West Ham haven’t really maintained good form for long this season.
  • Liverpool v Spurs: AWAY (3.5) — Liverpool will almost certainly turn up for this. But Spurs have shown resilience; they’re hard to beat.
  • Burnley v Chelsea: AWAY (1.44)
  • Swansea v Leicester: AWAY (3.3) — Swansea have improved, but still fancy Leicester to bounce back from some poor results.
  • Bournemouth v Man City: DRAW (5.1)

Week Profit/Loss = -£50.00 (-100.00% ROI)

Running Profit/Loss = +£138.65 (+19.80% ROI)

Oh Dear! White Wash!

► Week 13 Selections (04/02/2017)
  • Chelsea v Arsenal: DRAW (3.7) — should be a close one.
  • Crystal Palace v Sunderland: AWAY (5.8) — I don’t think there’s such a huge difference in these teams.
  • Everton v Bournemouth: AWAY (5.6) 
  • Hull v Liverpool: AWAY (1.49) — fancy Liverpool to bounce back
  • Southampton v West Ham: AWAY (4.8) — both of these teams have has some unpredictable results. Anyone’s game.
  • Watford v Burnley: HOME (2.18) — I think Burnley are the tougher side. But I feel that Watford may gain a bit of momentum after the Arsenal away win.
  • West Brom v Stoke: AWAY (3.55)
  • Spurs v Middlesbrough: DRAW (6.2) — with injuries to key players like Danny Rose, Spurs lack a bit of creativity.
  • Man City v Swansea: DRAW (7.6) — such little value in the home win, that I think the draw is a better option.
  • Leicester v Man United: HOME (6.0) — Leicester must sense United’s recent frustration. There’s every chance they can win this.

Week Profit/Loss = +£13.90 (+27.8% ROI)

Running Profit/Loss = £188.65 (+29.02% ROI)

Pleased with the selections on Sunderland and West Ham. Saved the week.

► Week 12 Selections (31/01/2017)
  • Arsenal v Watford: AWAY (15.5) — Arsenal should win comfortably, but the odds still look good here
  • Bournemouth v Crystal Palace: AWAY (4.0) — an Allardyce win has got to come soon…
  • Burnley v Leicester: HOME (3.1)
  • Middlesbrough v West Brom: AWAY (3.15)
  • Sunderland v Spurs: AWAY (1.39)
  • Swansea v Southampton: AWAY (2.42) — expect a bounce back from the heavy Arsenal FA Cup defeat
  • Liverpool v Chelsea: AWAY (3.0) — the better side should be capable of grinding out this important away win
  • West Ham v Man City: AWAY (1.6)
  • Man United v Hull: AWAY (20.0) — if Hull played even better teams like Arsenal/Spurs/City away would the odds be 20.0? I doubt it.
  • Stoke v Everton: DRAW (3.45) — hard to separate these two when Stoke are at home.

Week Profit/Loss = +£88.25 (+176.5% ROI)

Running Profit/Loss = £174.75 (+29.13% ROI)

Watford's win vs Arsenal brought the trend right back into line!

► Week 11 Selections (21/01/2017)
  • Liverpool v Swansea: HOME (1.24) 
  • Bournemouth v Watford: AWAY (4.8) — it’s about time Watford came back to good form
  • Crystal Palace v Everton: AWAY (2.44) 
  • Middlesbrough v West Ham: AWAY (3.3) — fancy West Ham to continue proving that they don’t need Payet (for now).
  • Stoke v Man United: AWAY (1.63)
  • West Brom v Sunderland: AWAY (6.0)
  • Man City v Spurs: AWAY (3.65)
  • Southampton v Leicester: AWAY (5.3) — i feel like these odds are too high
  • Arsenal v Burnley: AWAY (17.0) — it’s a longshot but i think the odds are exaggerated
  • Chelsea v Hull: HOME (1.19) — no hope for Hull!

Week Profit/Loss = -£15.35 (-30.7% ROI)

Running Profit/Loss = £86.5 (+15.72% ROI)

Not much joy here. Similar to last week.

► Week 10 Selections (14/01/2017)
  • Spurs v West Brom: DRAW (5.4) West Brom are a difficult team to beat
  • Burnley v Southampton: HOME (3.65)
  • Hull v Bournemouth: AWAY (2.4)
  • Sunderland v Stoke: HOME (3.1) — not bad odds at home for Sunderland
  • Swansea v Arsenal: AWAY (1.53)
  • Watford v Middlesbrough: HOME (2.56)
  • West Ham v Crystal Palace: AWAY (3.3) — it’s shambles at West Ham. I don’t see them performing well.
  • Leicester v Chelsea: AWAY (1.8)
  • Everton v Man City: AWAY (1.85)
  • Man United v Liverpool: AWAY (3.85) — Liverpool stand a great chance.

Week Profit/Loss = -£15.10 (-30.2% ROI)

Running Profit/Loss = £101.85 (+20.37% ROI)

Not a horrendous loss. To next week...

► Week 9 Selections (02/01/2017)
  • Middlesbrough v Leicester: AWAY (2.94) — it’s unlikely to be a clear-cut win.
  • Everton v Southampton: DRAW (3.4) — find it hard to separate these 2 teams.
  • Man City v Burnley: DRAW (8.8) — i think these odds are a bit exaggerated, and I’ve noticed this happens with Burnley specifically.
  • Sunderland v Liverpool: AWAY (1.36)
  • West Brom v Hull: DRAW (3.65) — didn’t fancy a West Brom win at the odds offered.
  • West Ham v Man United: AWAY (1.66) — West Ham being at home hasn’t had any real impact.
  • Bournemouth v Arsenal: AWAY (1.86)
  • Crystal Palace v Swansea: HOME (1.82) — Allardyce’s best opportunity to bag his first win at Palace.
  • Stoke v Watford: AWAY (5.3) — Spurs thrashing Watford may have impacted these odds. But these 2 teams are very comparable.
  • Spurs v Chelsea: DRAW (3.4) — i don’t think Spurs will quite manage the win they want.

Week Profit/Loss = -£41.70 (-83.4% ROI)

Running Profit/Loss = £116.95 (+25.98% ROI)

I regret not having more faith in Spurs! It would've softened the blow...

► Week 8 Selections (30/12/2016)
  • Hull v Everton: DRAW (3.55) — Hull are poor, but have had also had some bad luck.
  • Burnley v Sunderland: HOME (2.44)
  • Chelsea v Stoke: DRAW (6.2) — Chelsea are due a slip-up soon
  • Leicester v West Ham: HOME (2.12)
  • Man United v Middlesbrough: AWAY (17.0) — it’s unlikely, but United aren’t exactly robust.
  • Southampton v West Brom: AWAY (5.6) — Southampton’s superb home record might have a little too much weight in these odds against a similar opponent.
  • Swansea v Bournemouth: HOME (2.94)
  • Liverpool v Man City: AWAY (3.15) — interesting fixture. I think City can match Liverpool’s attacking game, and possibly pip it.
  • Watford v Spurs: DRAW (3.95) — Spurs don’t look like losing, but are due a bad result.
  • Arsenal v Crystal Palace: DRAW (5.8) — just about enough time has passed for Allardyce to start parking the bus.

Week Profit/Loss = £18.55 (+37.1% ROI)

Running Profit/Loss = £158.65 (+39.66% ROI)

Middlesbrough, i'm sure, was a value bet. Or not? So close to winning. Would've shot the Profit through the roof! Nevermind.

► Week 7 Selections (26/12/2016)
  • Watford v Crystal Palace: DRAW (3.35) — Allardyce’s impact probably isn’t in full effect yet
  • Arsenal v West Brom: AWAY (11.5) — tough match for Arsenal. No walkover.
  • Burnley v Middlesbrough: HOME (3.05) — think Burnley should be favourites at home.
  • Chelsea v Bournemouth: HOME (1.42)
  • Leicester v Everton: DRAW (3.4) — Everton have a lot to prove after their derby loss
  • Man United v Sunderland: DRAW (7.2) — fancy a surprise result here
  • Swansea v West Ham: AWAY (2.88)
  • Hull v Man City: AWAY (1.35) — the odds aren’t tempting enough. Hull are poor.
  • Liverpool v Stoke: HOME (1.32)
  • Southampton v Spurs: AWAY (2.7)

Week Profit/Loss = £30.35 (+60.7% ROI)

Running Profit/Loss = £140.10 (+40.0% ROI)

Tidy profit. Wise selections here.

► Week 6 Selections (17/12/2016)
  • Crystal Palace v Chelsea: AWAY (1.6) — i think they’ll strengthen their title bid with a win
  • Middlesbrough v Swansea: HOME (2.18)
  • Stoke v Leicester: DRAW (3.45) — it’s a tight one to call
  • Sunderland v Watford: HOME (2.68)
  • West Ham v Hull: DRAW (4.1)
  • West Brom v Man United: AWAY (1.77)
  • Bournemouth v Southampton: AWAY (2.66) — Bournemouth have been on a good run, but I think it’ll end.
  • Man City v Arsenal: HOME (2.26) — big game between 2 similar teams. Fancy City to really go for the win.
  • Spurs v Burnley: DRAW (7.0) — it only takes an early goal to stun Spurs. They may have trouble breaking Burnley down.
  • Everton v Liverpool: HOME (4.0) — at those odds, at home, in the derby game, I think it’s a decent pick.

Week Profit/Loss = £33.00 (+66.0% ROI)

Running Profit/Loss = £109.75 (+36.58% ROI)

That early goal did come for Burnley. But not enough to get them the draw. They're a stronger team than their odds suggest, though.

► Week 5 Selections (13/12/2016)
  • Bournemouth v Leicester: DRAW (3.5)  — Leicester probably won’t live up to the weekend’s win
  • Everton v Arsenal: AWAY (1.94) — Arsenal can solidify their title contention with a win over an inferior opponent
  • Middlesbrough v Liverpool: AWAY (1.63) — Liverpool are due their next win
  • West Ham v Burnley: AWAY (5.8) — these teams are comparable, and West Ham are poor at home…
  • Sunderland v Chelsea: AWAY (1.38)
  • Man City v Watford: DRAW (6.6) — think there’s value in the draw here. City are fragile.
  • West Brom v Swansea: HOME (2.1)
  • Stoke v Southampton: DRAW (3.3)
  • Crystal Palace v Man United: AWAY (1.75)
  • Spurs v Hull: HOME (1.25) — i see Spurs bouncing back after the disappointing weekend

Week Profit/Loss = £7.05 (+14.1% ROI)

Running Profit/Loss = £76.75 (+30.7% ROI)

Indeed Leicester didn't live up to the previous week. But they went as far as to lose... not a bad week in general, though.

► Week 4 Selections (10/12/2016)
  • Watford v Everton: AWAY (2.54)
  • Arsenal v Stoke: HOME (1.37)
  • Burnley v Bournemouth: HOME (3.6) — Bournemouth may come down to earth after last week’s big win
  • Hull v Crystal Palace: DRAW (3.35)
  • Swansea v Sunderland: AWAY (3.75) — Swansea are so unconvincing that even Sunderland can beat them.
  • Leicester v Man City: DRAW (4.1) — they’ve got to get points from somewhere…
  • Chelsea v West Brom: DRAW (6.4)
  • Man United v Spurs: AWAY (3.55) — Spurs have picked themselves up a bit. This is an important game.
  • Southampton v Middlesbrough: AWAY (6.4)
  • Liverpool v West Ham: DRAW (6.0) — ambitious selection, but perhaps they’ll be motivated by how close they are to the relegation zone

Week Profit/Loss = £21.60 (+43.2% ROI)

Running Profit/Loss = £69.70 (+34.85% ROI)

Liverpool don't look all that consistent. Pleased that selection came off.

► Week 3 Selections (03/12/2016)
  • Man City v Chelsea: AWAY (3.7) — well capable of winning this
  • Spurs v Swansea AWAY (10.5) — home win for Spurs is likely, but can’t help thinking 10.5 is decent
  • Stoke v Burnley AWAY (6.2) — these teams are fairly comparable at the moment. Good odds.
  • West Ham v Arsenal DRAW (4.1) — West Ham may rise to the occasion to scrape a point (to the relief of Billic)
  • Sunderland v Leicester HOME (3.3) — forget last year. Underdogs Sunderland can beat Leicester at home
  • Crystal Palace v Southampton DRAW (3.4)
  • West Brom v Watford HOME (2.2)
  • Bournemouth v Liverpool AWAY (1.78)
  • Everton v Man United AWAY (2.18) — not played particularly badly of late. Fancy them to be rewarded.
  • Middlesbrough v Hull AWAY (5.4) — expect a home win, but these teams are comparable. Why 5.4?..

Week Profit/Loss = -£4.00 (-8.0% ROI)

Running Profit/Loss = £48.10 (+32.06% ROI)

I don't have much faith in Leicester. And that's helped end the week pretty flat.

► Week 2 Selections (26/11/2016)
  • Burnley v Man City: AWAY (1.34)
  • Swansea v Crystal Palace: HOME (2.66) — big game for Swansea. I fancy them to take all 3 points at home.
  • Liverpool v Sunderland: DRAW (8.4) — Liverpool should win, but at these odds the draw looks good.
  • Leicester v Middlesrough: HOME (1.93) — despite some poor league results I think they’ll win.
  • Hull v West Brom: DRAW (3.25)
  • Chelsea v Spurs: HOME (1.76) — can’t see Spurs wining this if current form is anything to go by.
  • Watford v Stoke: AWAY (3.4) — Watford are on a high after beating champions Leicester, but I think Stoke might stun them.
  • Southampton v Everton: HOME (2.16)
  • Arsenal v Bournemouth: DRAW (5.2) — a feasible outcome with decent-looking odds.
  • Man United v West Ham: HOME (1.48)

Week Profit/Loss = £22.85 (+45.7% ROI)

Running Profit/Loss = £52.10 (+22.85% ROI)

Spurs played better than I expected... but still lost. Least it helped the profit.

► Week 1 Selections (19/11/2016)
  • Man United v Arsenal: DRAW (3.4) — backing a United win doesn’t look like value.
  • Watford v Leicester: HOME WIN (2.94) — The champions aren’t living up to their title.
  • Everton v Swansea: DRAW (4.4)
  • Southampton v Liverpool: AWAY WIN (2.14) — can’t see Liverpool losing this.
  • Sunderland v Hull: DRAW (3.4) — think it’ll be tight.
  • Crystal Palace v Man City: AWAY WIN (1.55) — can only see this going one way.
  • Stoke v Bournemouth: HOME WIN (2.3)
  • Spurs v West Ham: HOME WIN (1.57) — Spurs should break their ‘drawing streak’
  • Middlesbrough v Chelsea: DRAW (4.3)  think Middlesbrough could cause an upset.
  • West Brom v Burnley: HOME WIN (1.99)

Week Profit/Loss = £29.25 (+58.5% ROI)

Running Profit/Loss = £29.25 (+58.5% ROI)

Off to a flying start!