Punter2Pro https://punter2pro.com/ Fri, 09 Sep 2022 01:48:34 +0000 en-GB hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=6.0.2 https://i0.wp.com/punter2pro.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/cropped-favicon-1.png?fit=32%2C32&ssl=1 Punter2Pro https://punter2pro.com/ 32 32 114920795 August 2022 | Top Football Tipsters Of The Month https://punter2pro.com/august-2022-top-football-tipsters/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=august-2022-top-football-tipsters https://punter2pro.com/august-2022-top-football-tipsters/#respond Fri, 09 Sep 2022 01:48:34 +0000 https://punter2pro.com/?p=20868 Here’s the top 10 Football Tipsters for August 2022. I’ve used Tipstrr to produce the list. All records are thoroughly proofed. To learn more, check out my Tipstrr Review. The ...

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Here’s the top 10 Football Tipsters for August 2022.

I’ve used Tipstrr to produce the list. All records are thoroughly proofed. To learn more, check out my Tipstrr Review.

The following stats assume a flat £20 stake was placed on every football tip.


Rank

Tipster

Tips

ROI

Profit

1 Doublez 157 48.5% £1,523.87 SUBSCRIBE »
2 Billy Picks 28 39.9% £223.40 SUBSCRIBE »
3 EGFO 41 30.1% £246.60 SUBSCRIBE »
4 Long Shot Tips 25 49.5% £247.00 SUBSCRIBE »
5 Bethoven 170 25.5% £868.20 SUBSCRIBE »
6 Scotch Doubles 21 26.5% £111.17 SUBSCRIBE »
7 Tipster1986 22 22.5% £99.12 SUBSCRIBE »
8 Berlin Bet 28 21.8% £121.80 SUBSCRIBE »
9 Asian Soccer 28 21.6% £120.80 SUBSCRIBE »
10 AGF 89 21.5% £382.40 SUBSCRIBE »

 

All Tipsters
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August 2022 | Top Horse Racing Tipsters Of The Month https://punter2pro.com/august-2022-top-horse-racing-tipsters/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=august-2022-top-horse-racing-tipsters https://punter2pro.com/august-2022-top-horse-racing-tipsters/#respond Fri, 09 Sep 2022 01:28:34 +0000 https://punter2pro.com/?p=20865 Here’s the top 10 Horse Racing Tipsters for August 2022. I’ve used Tipstrr to produce the list. All records are thoroughly proofed. To learn more, check out my Tipstrr Review. ...

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Here’s the top 10 Horse Racing Tipsters for August 2022.

I’ve used Tipstrr to produce the list. All records are thoroughly proofed. To learn more, check out my Tipstrr Review.

The following stats assume a flat £20 stake was placed on every horse racing tip.


Rank

Tipster

Tips

ROI

Profit

1 The Banker 57 126.3% £1,440.00 SUBSCRIBE »
2 NM Racing Tips 103 100.1% £2,061.18 SUBSCRIBE »
3 On The Money Tips 82 88.1% £1,444.00 SUBSCRIBE »
4 OutsiderSpeedPicks 47 69.8% £656.00 SUBSCRIBE »
5 On Target Tips 125 66.7% £1,667.00 SUBSCRIBE »
6 Underdog Racing Tips 119 56.2% £1,337.24 SUBSCRIBE »
7 The Daily Punt 72 55.5% £799.81 SUBSCRIBE »
8 GV Early Alerts 98 49.1% £961.79 SUBSCRIBE »
9 Daily Trixies 31 48.5% £300.55 SUBSCRIBE »
10 IrishFancies 37 48.2% £356.94 SUBSCRIBE »

 

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Best Betting Tipster Services 2022 | Find Top Sports Tipsters https://punter2pro.com/best-sports-betting-tipsters-tipping-services/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=best-sports-betting-tipsters-tipping-services https://punter2pro.com/best-sports-betting-tipsters-tipping-services/#comments Sun, 14 Aug 2022 00:01:15 +0000 https://punter2pro.com/?p=7310 There are literally thousands of Tipsters or “Tipster Services” available online, encompassing just about every sport imaginable. Some tips are free, and others come as part of a paid subscription ...

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There are literally thousands of Tipsters or “Tipster Services” available online, encompassing just about every sport imaginable. Some tips are free, and others come as part of a paid subscription service.

“So who’s the best Tipster?”, you ask.

There’s no straightforward answer to that — but I can certainly point you in the right direction. Here’s everything you need to know in order to dodge scams, avoid disappointment, and find a legitimate Tipster using one of the very best, and most transparent, Tipster Platforms.

 

Do Profitable Tipsters Exist?

I used to believe that there was no hope in finding any Tipster which gives you a genuine advantage — whether you paid for a service or not. But that conclusion was drawn from a string of negative experiences using independent subscription Tipster Services, and by realising just how many social media Tipsters falsely promoted themselves to entice punters to use their affiliate tracking links.

However, I’ve seen slow improvements to the Tipster scene, and gambling industry in general, over the past few years. Online regulations are tightening up for the better: it seems I’m not the only one who recognised that the industry needed cleaning up!

Several solid Tipping Services do exist. These are brought to you through specialist Tipster proofing sites — offering far more transparency to followers than ever before. I’ll get onto these sites, and why they’re worth worth using, shortly.

 

Free or Paid Tipsters?

In an ideal world Tipster Services would all be free. But the reality is that the best services tend to charge a subscription fee. There are however pros and cons to both that are worth noting.


Free Tipster Services

You’re spoilt for choice. There’s free Tipsters everywhere — on blogs, social media, forums, the radio, and so on.

Just keep in mind that free Tipping Services tend to be less audited than many of the paid options. You need to assess the strategy used, and motives behind them, on an individual basis. Always tread carefully.


Warning: Many free Tipsters give out selections based on the slightest hunch. They’ll frequently present images of winnings, and play down losses. They’ll attempt to entice players to subscribe to “premium tips” or to bet at whatever Bookmaker offers them the best incentive. 


If you aren’t looking to pay for a tipster subscription, then I recommend using the free tips provided by an established platform — such as those I’m about to recommend in the next section. I’ve also put together my own list of the best free tipsters to save you some time.


Subscription Tipster Services

Paid options usually charge on a weekly, monthly, or yearly basis and tend to provide a greater chance of success than following free tipsters. I recommend subscribing on a monthly or quarterly service to get the best deal, while allowing enough time to monitor your results.

Paying for a tipster service does not guarantee success by any means. Yes, the very top services almost always charge a fee — but many poor services do, too. So aside from performance records, it’s important to look out for the subscription price. It’s worth noting that some services provide promising results, but the fees are too high to make subscribing worthwhile.


If you’re looking for free or paid tipsters, there’s a few standout Tipster sites that I’ve identified as giving you the very best chance of earning a profit. They’re essentially ‘hubs’ which connect punters to a vast array of Tipsters for almost any sport. The role of these subscription Tipster sites is to audit third party Tipsters, to scrutinise their selections, and present their betting records with utmost transparency. This shields bettors from common scams.

So here’s my shortlist of the top Tipster websites…

 

1. Tipstrr

Tipstrr was created in 2014 to provide an open platform for Tipsters. It connects Tipsters with sports bettors looking to improve their long term profitability.

The focus of Tipstrr is transparency, and keeping open and accurate records for all to see. The company and it’s directors concur with my views that the overall issue with Tipping Services is trust. To combat this, Tipstrr have developed advanced tools to track a Tipster’s performance using odds data coming directly from the Bookies.

What differentiates Tipstrr from other platforms is that their proofing process is fully automated. The prices are checked against the market by computers; so there’s very little room for error. This is a major feat.

Anyone can become a tipster on Tipstrr. Simply create a portfolio and start tracking your bets. The portfolio can be private (to track your own betting performance), or available to others to follow for free or on a subscription basis.


Using Tipstrr

Simply select your sport from the main menu to view a variety of Tipsters. You can filter by ‘on form”, ‘established’, or ‘free’.

Here’s a football Tipster I found on Tipstrr:


General stats are listed at the top of the Tipster’s profile.

Best Sports Betting Tipsters 2018 (Top Tipping Services) - Profitable Tipster - Tipping Service Review

SIGN UP TO TIPSTRR TODAY


This particular tipster has a realistic ROI of 9.8%. That’s a good sign. I don’t buy into astronomical ROI’s like 35%. Whenever I see those kinds of stats, I immediately want to know how many bets were placed (because that performance is not achievable long-term in today’s sports betting markets).

You can dig deep into all of the Tipster’s stats from the same page, finding a neat breakdown of the results for each sports (and leagues), markets, bookmakers used, odds ranges, publish time, time before event, and strike rates. It’s an impressive system that’s intuitive, and loaded with useful insights.


The same Football Tipster has achieved the following results (484 bets).

Best Sports Betting Tipsters 2018 (Top Tipping Services) - Profitable Tipster - Tipping Service Review

SIGN UP TO TIPSTRR TODAY


A good track record so far. And there’s plenty of other Tipsters on the platform with promising statistics like this.


Tipstrr Pricing

Prices vary for each Tipster, and generally range between £0-30 per month.

The good news is that the majority of paid Tipsters offer some form of trial period, or heavy discount to new customers. The duration of the promotion varies from days to weeks.

Shop around, and take advantage of trial periods where you can.

Read my review of Tipstrr to learn more about the service, or check out my Monthly Tipster Rankings to find out which Horse Racing and Football Tipsters are performing best right now.

 

2. Smart Betting Club

Launched in 2006, Smart Betting Club (formerly known as ‘Secret Betting Club’), is an independent and honest reviewer and assessor of tipster services, systems and strategies. Their service is primarily aimed at punters seeking legitimate proofing/information on tipsters.

Once you become a member of Smart Betting Club you’re ready to access all of their resources including the Tipster Ratings Index, PDF magazines (published every other month), detailed Tipster Profit Reports, free tipsters, and a tipster savings section.

SBC doesn’t have a particularly modern or dynamic site, but instead focuses on maintaining a ‘Hall of Fame’ of their best tipsters and provides exceptionally detailed reports on each of them. These reports are far more comprehensive than any others I’ve seen. In fact, SBC is one of the only tipster proofing services that manually analyses how the available odds differed from those advised, and underlines the impact this had on the profit.

Aside from their detailed reports, perhaps the most unique aspect of Smart Betting Club is their level of independence. They’re not paid by referring bettors to tipsters featured on their site. They do not use affiliate links in any of their reviews. In fact, they only earn from subscriptions to their members area.

The tipster referral revenue SBC misses out on is passed onto their members in the form of exclusive savings on major tipsters.


Using Smart Betting Club

The SBC Publications section features PDF ‘magazines’, where you can read the latest tipster service reviews, specialist strategies, betting guides and interviews.


Smart Betting Club Review - A Tipster Proofing Service Worth Its Fee?

SIGN UP TO SBC TODAY


Every other month SBC produces their latest Tipster Profit Report in a similar PDF format. I must emphasise how incredibly detailed these reports are (some are over 11 pages long!).

The staff at SBC grade tipsters, and even strike off those who are no longer profitable. It’s one of the only places I’ve seen that doesn’t assume that a once profitable (but no longer) tipster service is destined turn it all around and go back to former glory days.


The overall PnL graph for a tipster service.

Smart Betting Club Review - A Tipster Proofing Service Worth Its Fee?


This results of a sample of real bets made using the service, indicating how value diminishes over time (vital to know).

Smart Betting Club Review - A Tipster Proofing Service Worth Its Fee?

SIGN UP TO SBC TODAY


Smart Betting Club Pricing

To obtain the maximum value from SBC I recommend opting for the £79.99 + VAT annual subscription.

Bare in mind that many of the tipster savings are significant enough to cover this fee.

Furthermore, SBC offers a 90-day quibble-free money back guarantee if you’re dissatisfied with your purchase.


Check out my complete review of Smart Betting Club.

 

3. Betting Gods

Betting Gods is another registered Tipster company, also established in 2014. It’s now very well recognised, and has even sponsored a number of different races and courses. The aim of the platform is to bring together different tipsters from various sports under a single site.

Betting Gods has excellent reviews on third party sites such as Trust Pilot — which is the benchmark to many good, reliable online services. Furthermore, it comes with a ClickBank guarantee. So If you believe that you’ve been mis-sold something by Betting Gods, then there is a 2 month period to claim a refund. Read more on this guarantee here.

Customer service is a strong point of Betting Gods. This is made evident by public interactions from their staff, across many unaffiliated betting sites and blogs. The owner of Betting Gods, Darren Moore, has openly called for the regulation of Tipster services to prevent punters being scammed. He imposes a strict verification process on all Tipsters featured on his network.

Betting Gods strives for transparency, and encourages Tipsters to explain their selections. This way subscribers are able to learn a bit more about the sport, and perhaps even approach their betting from a different angle going forward.


Using Betting Gods

Betting Gods has a very bold and bright interface. You can filter by whatever sport interests you most.

You’ll note that there aren’t quite as many Tipsters on Betting Gods as some other platforms. This is because all Tipsters have to go through a 16-week vetting process before they go public on the network. It’s a good thing!

Note: some tipsters on Betting Gods have a much larger and more extensive track record than others. Always do your research.


The Betting Gods Greyhound Tipster has achieved the following.
Best Sports Betting Tipsters 2018 (Top Tipping Services) - Profitable Tipster - Tipping Service Review

SIGN UP TO BETTING GODS TODAY


The Tipster ‘profile page’ concept is similar to that of Tipstrr’s (it’s a little more basic, though).


The running stats for the Betting Gods greyhound Tipster

SIGN UP TO BETTING GODS TODAY


The above chart isn’t really that informative. However, you can bring up the full breakdown of bets in a Google sheet, as well. This is great for checking individual bets yourself, and it provides an extra level of transparency you don’t get from other platforms.


Betting Gods Pricing

Betting Gods offers £1 for a full 30 day free trial. You don’t need to place real bets, either. I highly recommend giving it a go. There’s absolutely nothing to lose (except a pound!).

After the trial, prices vary for each Tipster, and generally range between £0-30 per month. It’s consistent with Tipstrr in that department.

For more information, here’s my comprehensive review of the Betting Gods Tipster Network.

 

Why Most Tipster Sites Will Let You Down

Before you begin enjoying one (or more) of my recommended Tipster sites, it’s important to recognise why the majority of sports Tipping services have disappointed punters for decades.

Here they are…


1. No Edge, No Profit.

Most Tipsters don’t give punters an advantage. In other words, they don’t provide value or ‘edge’, and their selection method is worthless.

This same problem echos across all areas of gambling; not just in sports Tipping. The vast majority of betting systems, strategies, selection models, and staking plans — for both sports and Casino — ultimately fail in the long-run because they don’t yield any positive long-term advantage.

Betting on value is essential. Without it, there’s no profit. Yet the concept is still so understated.


The average gambler still believes that picking a winner means they made the right bet. But in fact, the “right bet” is any selection(s) which had the odds in your favour. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose — but value conquers all in the long-run.


Sure, you can hit winning streaks without having any positive value in your bets. Your Tipster could provide you with 10 consecutive winning selections without ever considering their value. However, that’s merely a phenomenon commonly known as… luck!

Choose a Tipster who understands the importance of value betting.


2. Tipster Scams (They’re Common).

The worst kind of Tipster is one with no intentions of helping you earn. I’m talking about the type of guy who knows damn well that his selections won’t generate any profit, but he dishes them out to unsuspecting punters anyway.

Examples of Tipster scams:

  • % of profits. Some Tipsters work on a “when you win, I win” basis. So they want ‘winners’. To maximise their chances of guessing right on a sports event, they’ll cover as many outcomes as possible. Some customers get one selection, others get something entirely different. It’s the classic Tipster scam.
  • Bookmaker affiliates. Many Tipsters earn commission by recommending that you bet with bookmakers they’re affiliated to, in order to earn a rake-back of player losses. These Tipsters are therefore incentivised to refer losing players: a clear conflict of interest.
  • Misleading numbers. It’s common to find Tipsters that document their betting history using “peak” historical prices. Yes, these prices existed at some point in time — so it looks clean on paper. In practice, however, it’s impossible to obtain those odds on every bet.
  • Outright lies. Other Tipsters haven’t yet worked out the above “peak price” trick. So they just doctor their numbers entirely; often “neglecting” to record hefty losing streaks. It’s like shanking your tee-off in golf and saying “That doesn’t count. It was a practice swing!”.

These kinds of scams can be used in conjunction with one another. They continue to exist because there’s no shortage of punters looking to base their bets around the very flimsiest of evidence.

Learn more about the risks involved in following Tipsters.


Note: not every Tipster is a scammer. I’m just making you aware of the worst case scenarios.


3. Many Tipsters are Naive.

Tipsters aren’t usually mathematicians or stats gurus. So very often their strategies are devised naively — albeit with good intentions.

There’s countless Tipsters out there who genuinely believe they’re onto a winning strategy, and enjoy sharing the love around…. until it ultimately comes crashing down. They’re often gamblers themselves.

Here’s some of the usual mistakes:

  • Believing hot streaks were more than just luck. It’s the Achilles heel: hit a good run and you start thinking you’re onto something groundbreaking. Many Tipsters have a gambler’s mentality, and don’t recognise how results can swing one way or the other (Learn more on betting variance).
  • A small sample size. With a small number of bets you might be in profit. Placing one bet every weekend, for example, might reveal a handsome ROI over half a season of football. But over time the true edge will reveal itself. Many Tipsters don’t see the decline coming.
  • Reading too much into strike rates. A fundamental error in sports betting analysis is to count the percentage of winners you had, and chalk that down as a winning strategy. That’s not how it works. Profitability hinges on how good your odds were in relation to your strike rate.

I highly recommend that you learn more about the potential risks involved in sports tipping by following the links below:

 

Why These Proofing Sites Are The Best

Rightly or wrongly, only a few Tipping Services made my list. And there’s good reasons for that.

I’m extremely cautious about what services I recommend. Providing you with high quality products, and my honest views on sports betting is the very philosophy of this website. I won’t compromise that in favour of earning more commission from products that I cannot verify.

Tipstrr, Smart Betting Club, and Betting Gods are companies I felt comfortable adding to my site. It’s not to say there aren’t more great Tipsters out there — I just believe those services offer the most in terms of:

  • Transparency (they’re not scams, and most services offer trial periods)
  • Variety (lots of sports and markets to bet on)
  • User interface (neat reports, and user-friendly sites for mobile and desktop devices)
  • Reputation (these services rate over 4.5/5.0 on TrustPilot).
  • Cost (subscription fees are reasonable, and free options are available)

Please note that prices vary for each individual Tipster on all Tipster Networks. Be sure to subscribe to Tipsters with a solid record, where you estimate you’ll be able to return enough profit to cover your monthly expense.

And lastly, remember that betting on tips carries risk: so start slowly and never bet beyond your means. There’s no guarantee you’ll profit — like with Arbing or Matched Betting.

 

Selected Tipsters For Popular Sports

To find tipsters for specific sports, check out my picks (which all come from my recommended proofing sites):


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Every Sports Betting Odds Format Explained With Examples https://punter2pro.com/easily-convert-betting-odds-formats-decimals/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=easily-convert-betting-odds-formats-decimals https://punter2pro.com/easily-convert-betting-odds-formats-decimals/#respond Thu, 11 Aug 2022 01:45:40 +0000 http://punter2pro.com/?p=5938 Do you want to understand how each of the different sports betting odds formats work? In this article I provide the formulas to calculate the potential winnings using any format ...

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Do you want to understand how each of the different sports betting odds formats work?

In this article I provide the formulas to calculate the potential winnings using any format of your choice. I also explain how to convert any format to/from the, preferable, Decimal odds format.

 

Decimal Odds

Decimal odds are the default format across Europe — hence the name “European Decimal Odds”. They’re the easiest and most transparent odds to use, and the go-to format for most professional bettors and traders.

Note that profit calculations using decimals odds show the potential return of a bet, with the stake included.


Profit Calculation

  • Formula: [Stake x Decimal -1]

Examples

  • 2.0 = £100 profit on a £100 stake.
  • 5.0 = £400 profit on a £100 stake.
  • 10.0 = £900 profit on a £100 stake.

During the remainder of this article I provide details for how all other odds formats can be translated to and from European Decimal Odds.

 

Fractional Odds

In the UK and Ireland Bookmakers have always used fractional odds as the default (e.g. 6/4, 1/3, 2/1). They’re simple to use — but do not always make it easy to quantify/compare the value of the prices on offer.

Importantly, unlike decimals odds, calculations made on Fractional odds give the potential profit, without the stake included.


Profit Calculation

  • Formula: [Stake x Fraction]

Examples

  • 2/1 = £200 profit on a £100 stake.
  • 1/2 = £50 profit on a £100 stake.
  • 1/1 = £100 profit on a £100 stake (“evens” or “even money”).

Convert to Decimal

  • Formula: [Fraction + 1]

Examples

  • 3/1 = 3.0 + 1 = 4.0 decimal odds.
  • 1/2 = 0.5 + 1 = 1.5 decimal odds.
  • 1/1 = 1 + 1 = 2.0 decimal odds.
To convert decimal odds to fractions: Decimal Odds - 1.0, and then find the nearest whole integers (e.g. 3.75 - 1 = 2.75/1, or 11/4).

 

American Odds

American odds are of course very popular at US sportsbooks. They’re often called “money line” or “lines”. Importantly, the odds are different for underdogs and favourites — but are both represented in units of $100. Favourites are represented by negative (-) odds, and underdogs by positive (+) odds.

  • If the odds are lower than evens (2.0 decimal), then American odds are negative. This shows how much money must be wagered to win $100.
  • If the odds are higher than evens (2.0 decimal), then American odds are positive. This shows how much money will be won on a wager of $100.

American odds are barely recognised in the UK and across Europe because the format is confusing and more difficult to grasp than the Fractional or Decimal formats.


Profit Calculation (Favourites):

  • Formula: [-100/Odds x Stake]

Examples

  • -200 = (-100/-200) = 1/2. Therefore, $50 profit on $100 staked.
  • -400 = (-100/-400) = 1/4. Therefore, $25 profit on $100 staked.
  • -500 = (-100/-500) = 1/5. Therefore, $10 profit on $50 staked.

Profit Calculation (Underdogs)

  • Formula: [Odds/100 x Stake]

Examples

  • 200 = (200/100) = 2/1. Therefore $200 profit on $100 staked.
  • 300 = (300/100) = 3/1. Therefore $300 profit on $100 staked.
  • 500 = (500/100) = 5/1. Therefore $250 profit on $50 staked.

Convert to Decimal (Favourites)

  • Formula: [-100/Odds + 1]

Examples

  • -500 = (-100/-500) +1 = 1/5 + 1 = 1.2 decimal odds.
  • -400 = (-100/-400) + 1 = 1/4 + 1 = 1.25 decimal odds.
  • -100 = (-100/-100) + 1 = 1 + 1 = 2.0 decimal odds.

Convert to Decimal (Underdogs)

  • Formula: [Odds/100 + 1]

Examples

  • 500 = (500/100) +1 = 5 + 1 = 6.0 decimal odds.
  • 400 = (400/100) + 1 = 4 + 1 = 5.0 decimal odds.
  • 200 = (200/100) + 1 = 3.0 decimal odds.
To convert Decimal odds of 2.00 or greater to American odds: (Decimal Odds – 1) x 100

To convert Decimal odds of less than 2.00 to American odds: (-100)/(Decimal Odds -1)

 

Hong Kong Odds

Hong Kong odds are adopted by many Asian bookmakers. The odds are simple to work out, and are a cross between decimal and fractional odds. Essentially the profit calculation works just the same as fractional odds — except they’re presented in a decimal format.


Profit Calculation

  • Formula: [Stake x odds]

Examples

  • 2.0 = £200 profit on a £100 stake.
  • 0.5 = £50 profit on a £100 stake.
  • 3.0 = £150 profit on a £50 stake.

Convert to Decimal:

  • Formula: [Odds + 1]

Examples

  • 0.4 = 0.4 + 1 = 1.4 decimal odds.
  • 5.0 = 5.0 + 1 = 6.0 decimal odds.
  • 1.5 = 1.5 + 1 = 6.5 decimal odds.
To convert decimal odds to Hong Kong odds: (Decimal Odds -1)

 

Indonesian Odds

These are like US odds — except instead of being experssed in terms of $100, it’s in terms of $1. So whenever you see a negative value, it shows how big the wager is needed for a profit of $1. And when it’s positive, it shows the profit from a wager of $1.

Personally I prefer this format to US odds, as it’s more useful to calculate profit in terms of $1 units rather than $100.


Profit Calculation (Favourites)

  • Formula: [-1/Odds x Stake]

Examples

  • -2.0 = (-1/-2) = 0.5. Therefore, $0.5 profit on $1 staked.
  • -1.25 = (-1/-1.25) = 0.8. Therefore, $80 profit on $100 staked.
  • -1.5 = (-1/-1.5) = 2/3. Therefore, $40 profit on $60 staked.

Profit Calculation (Underdogs)

  • Formula: [Odds x Stake]

Examples

  • 4.0 = $400 profit on $100 staked.
  • 3.0 = $300 profit on $100 staked.
  • 5.0 = $250 profit on $50 staked.

Convert to Decimal (Favourites)

  • Formula: [-1/Odds + 1]

Examples

  • -5.0 = (-1/-5) +1 = 1/5 + 1 = 1.2 decimal odds.
  • -4.0 = (-1/-4) + 1 = 1/4 + 1 = 1.25 decimal odds.
  • -1 = (-1/-1) + 1 = 1 + 1 = 2.0 decimal odds.

Convert to Decimal (Underdogs)

  • Formula: [Odds + 1]

Examples

  • 5.0 = 5 +1 = 6.0 decimal odds.
  • 4.0 = 4 + 1 = 5.0 decimal odds.
  • 2.0 = 2 + 1 = 3.0 decimal odds.
To convert Decimal odds of 2.00 or greater to Indonesian odds: (Decimal Odds – 1)

To convert Decimal odds of less than 2.00 to Indonesian odds: (-1)/(Decimal Odds -1)

 

Malaysian Odds

Malaysian odds are the opposite of the US and Indonesian formats. This time the negative (-) and positive (+) odds are switched over. Negative odds represent the underdog, while Positive odds represent the favbourite. All other calculations remain the same.


Profit Calculations (Favourites)

  • Formula: [Odds x Stake]

Examples

  • 5.0 = $500 from on $100 staked.
  • 4.0 = $400 profit on $100 staked.
  • 1.0 = $50 profit on $50 staked.

Profit Calculations (Favourites)

  • Formula: [-1/Odds x Stake]

Examples

  • -2.0 = (-1/-2) = 0.5. Therefore, $0.5 profit on $1 staked.
  • -1.25 = (-1/-1.25) = 0.8. Therefore, $80 profit on $100 staked.
  • -1.5 = (-1/-1.5) = 2/3. Therefore, $40 profit on $60 staked.

Convert to Decimal (Positive)

  • Formula: [Odds + 1]

Examples

  • 5.0 = 6.0 decimal odds.
  • 4.0 = 5.0 decimal odds.
  • 1.0  = 2.0 decimal odds.

Convert to Decimal (Negative)

  • Formula: [-1/odds +1]

Examples

  • -5.0 = -1/-5 + 1  = 1.2 decimal odds.
  • -4.0 = -1/-4 + 1 = 1.25 decimal odds.
  • -0.6 = -1/-0.6 + 1 = 2.67 decimal odds.
To convert Decimal odds of 2.00 or less to Malay odds: (Decimal Odds – 1) 

To convert Decimal odds of greater than 2.00 to Malay odds: (-1)/(Decimal Odds -1)

 

The Probability (Implied Odds)

Probabilities aren’t used by Bookmakers or the betting exchanges — but if you want to earn from sports betting it’s vital to know how to translate odds into the implied chance (%). The implied chance  tells us the % chance, according the odds on offer, of an event happening.

Once you convert your odds, from whatever format you use, into decimal odds then you can very quickly convert them into a implied % value.


Convert From Decimal

  • Formula: [1 / Decimal Odds]

Examples

  • 5.0 = (1/5) = 0.2 = 20% chance
  • 2.0 = (1/2) = 0.5 = 50 % chance
  • 1.5 = (1/1.5) = 2/3 = 66.67% chance

Convert To Decimal

  • Formula: [100/Chance %]

Examples

  • 40% chance = 100/40 = 2.5 decimal odds
  • 90% chance = 100/90 = 1.11 decimal odds
  • 25% chance = 100/25 = 4.0 decimal odds

 

Final Words of Advice

Without a doubt the easiest way to convert your odds is to use a ready-made calculator, such as the Odds Calculator from AceOdds. However, if you’re using excel (or similar) to formulate your own betting strategy, you’ll need to know the formulas behind odds conversions. The above information will help you.

If you have a choice of format, I highly recommend that you get used to using decimal “European” odds — it’s the easiest to work with and, in my opinion, is the most intuitive. Unlike many of the other odds formats listed in this article, decimal odds have no layers to decrypt. Quite simply: the higher the number, the least likely it is to win.

There is one other format that you might wish to learn about: Spread Betting odds. This works much differently to the fixed odds formats shown above, so I’ve published a separate article about it. Check out: Spread Betting Odds Explained.

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Mug Betting — Why Regular Punters Eventually Lose https://punter2pro.com/mug-bets-earn-premier-league-fixture/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=mug-bets-earn-premier-league-fixture https://punter2pro.com/mug-bets-earn-premier-league-fixture/#respond Wed, 10 Aug 2022 13:00:23 +0000 http://punter2pro.com/?p=5727 A Mug Bet is simply betting without any advantage or ‘edge’. The vast majority of sports bettors can be classified as “Mug Bettors” or “Mugs” for short, as harsh as ...

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A Mug Bet is simply betting without any advantage or ‘edge’. The vast majority of sports bettors can be classified as “Mug Bettors” or “Mugs” for short, as harsh as that sounds. But the truth is, Mug Betting relies so heavily on good fortune that the approach will inevitably lose money to the Bookies in the long run.

I wanted to know just how much regular football punters are likely to lose over the course of the season, and whether I defy the odds by turning a profit using only my personal opinion on the upcoming event. So I placed a £5 bet on every Premier League fixture for the remainder of the season, at an equal £5 stake.

How do you think I performed? Read on to find out.

 

The Mug Betting Experiment


Inspiration

Every seasoned bettor knows a guy, or follows someone on Twitter, who claims to “smash the bookies”. Now, these guys might have hot streaks. They might be smarter at betting than others. But do they ever quit their jobs and make a living from sports betting alone?

Not in my experience. 

Needless to say, I don’t always believe the extent of success stories I hear and read about within the sports betting community. Once I know that an approach doesn’t involve using a mathematically proven edge, I tend to switch off entirely.

Nonetheless, I was intrigued to find out whether I could succeed by backing one selection in every remaining Premier League fixture, equipped with only one tool: my opinion. I wanted to emulate the average gambler to test whether there’s a skill element that mpacts sports betting performance, which cannot be quantified.

Thus the “Mug Betting Experiment” was formed. I decided to use the Betfair exchange Match Odds market to ensure I obtained the best available odds at the time of betting; I wouldn’t dare use Bookmakers for this. I posted up my selections well before the match-day.


What I Hoped To Answer

  1. Just how well can I fair by relying solely on my intuition and knowledge of Premier League football?
  2. Will my knowledge of value betting prove to be advantageous to the experiment, or will it be worthless without proper analysis?
  3. What kind of expectations should Mug Punters have when betting on multiple fixtures over the course of a season?
  4. Can I remain unbiased in my selections despite my allegiance to Spurs?

What I Predicted

I predicted, in my original version of this blog post, that my Mug Bets would break even. The reality could’ve been a lot better. Or much, much worse.

This might sound pessimistic. But I had, and still do, have faith in the efficiency of the betting markets. I’ve never had faith in my own ability to beat those markets using guesswork alone.

 

The Results Went Exactly As Expected

It’s spooky just how accurate my prediction for the Mug Bets experiment was.

 

The result of all 270 bets yielded a 0.00% ROI, once the Betfair commission of 5% was applied. The profit ended at just +£4.33 by the end of the experiment.

Think about that for a second. After 270 Mug Bets, I was almost exactly even.


the running pnl graph of the Mug bets:

Chart by Visualizer

By all means check through the Week-by-week updates published here, if you find it a little hard to believe.

The 270 bets placed was enough to gain a reasonable insight into my performance. To put things into perspective, I placed the equivalent of 2 bets every weekend for 2.59 years (assuming no summer break). It’s safe to say I had no edge in my “strategy”.


How Did I Predict The Outcome So Accurately?

Before the experiement I knew from experience that by using the betting exchange and sticking to a fixed  stake, I’d stand a good chance of breaking even or losing only a small percentage of the total stake (after commission).

So it seemed logical — opposed to pessimistic — that I wouldn’t lose or gain much profit over a sample of 270 Mug Bets. I was right.

 

What The Results Prove


The Need For Value

With any type of gambling there’s an an ‘edge’ — usually in favour of the Bookmaker or Casino. You absolutely need a way of picking the odds in your favour in order to earn a profit.

It’s not about “picking winners” and it’s not about good fortune. It’s about achieving value in the bets/wagers you place, so that you will eventually come out on top. Most people simply don’t have this advantage — I didn’t have this advantage.

Ultimately, even a seasoned sports bettor cannot succeed without a proper betting model to back up their selections.

I just backed what I thought looked like value, or what I ‘felt’ was a good bet. The approach wasn’t sophisticated enough. And despite the peaks and troughs of my running PnL, the overall conclusion is that I couldn’t beat the accuracy of the odds on such a liquid, busy marketplace.

To learn more, read my page on Value Betting.


The Superiority of Betting Exchange Odds

Quietly, I am quite proud of the result I achieved in the Mug Betting Experiment. But I have the betting exchange to thank for that.

If I’d placed all of these bets at Bookmakers, the results would’ve been significantly worse — in a hefty loss, in fact.

Bookmakers have much lower odds than the Betting Exchanges. Precisely how much lower depends on the site, markets, size of the odds, and liquidity/demand, among other factors. Reasonably speaking you’d expect the odds at the Bookies to be 5-15% lower than Betfair for Premier League fixtures.

So if we take the best and worst case scenarios I’d have the following results:

  • 5% lower: -£35.63 (-2.64% ROI)
  • 15% lower: -£115.57 (-8.56% ROI)

Big difference.

The experiment is truly testament to how much better off sports bettors are for using the betting exchanges.

 

Challenges Posed By The Experiment

The experiment created the types of challenges bettors will face on regular basis.


When Is It Safe To Raise The Stakes?

Look at the results up until 80 bets in. You’d be forgiven for thinking it was a winning trend.


Up until 80 bets in 
Chart by Visualizer

If I had raised the stakes here (as many bettors would) I would’ve have convincingly lost money from the experiment. The PnL was almost entirely downhill from this point onward (apart from one enormous win when Watford beat Arsenal at the Emirates).

To tackle this problem, I suggest that you constantly monitor your current ROI and always stay realistic with your expectations. You’re looking to achieve 5-10% ROI, that’s all. This sample was sitting well outside my expectations, at +35.37%. That ROI couldn’t possibly hold steady. It was inevitable that the results would ‘even out’, and I predicted the downfall several times throughout the Mug Bets week-by-week updates.

The moral: It doesn’t matter if you’re winning or losing now — it matters where you’ll be in the long-run. Raising the stakes after a short winning streak is very dangerous. You can learn more about Betting swings from my post on variance.


Why Did My Profit Drop Off?

Well, one theory I have is that I was doing a good job to begin with — but I lost my edge.

There were a number of predictions on my Best Tips For Premier League Football Betting 2016/17, which I used to support my selections. For example, I thought Man United and West Ham (relatively speaking), were hugely over-hyped by the media during the summer. I also believed Chelsea would bounce back from their poor 2015/16 campaign. These ideas helped me to find price inaccuracies in the early half of the season.

But I felt the odds were becoming increasingly sharp as the season went on. As the public sussed out the rough standings of the 20 teams, my once ‘wise‘ ideas were now held by the majority. The odds became more accurate, and I lost my ability to identify value. I needed fresh ideas to maintain my edge — but I didn’t have them.

The other thought I had was that I was just very lucky to begin with, and variance eventually evened itself out.

Either way, the positive start was never going to continue in that fashion.


Was I Biased Towards Spurs?

No, actually. In fact, I didn’t have enough faith in them.

Of the 27 Spurs games during the ‘Mug Betting Experiment’ I backed Spurs to:

  • WIN 16 times (Correct bets: 11)
  • DRAW 9 times (Correct bets: 0)

And I backed their opponents to:

  • WIN 2 times (Correct bets: 1)

The obvious downfall here is that I incorrectly backed the Draw far too many times (9). Of those instances, Spurs won all 9 times. If I’d have been more biased/faithful, then I wouldn’t have suffered a crippling -£45 loss on the ‘Draw’ selections alone.

Arguably, I may have overcompensated when it came to Spurs. I was aware that I could be unintentionally biased. Perhaps I subconsciously avoided backing them too often.


THE RUNNING PNL GRAPH OF THE Spurs RESULTS: 
Chart by Visualizer

Based on this small sample, it looks as if I started to gain more faith in Spurs as the season went on. But I wasn’t rewarded for this — because the odds evidently didn’t have much value. This suggests the majority of others also agreed that Spurs were going to win most of their remaining games and finish high in the table.

 

Could I Have Done Better?

Perhaps I’d have done better if I didn’t bet on every remaining fixture. I often found it restrictive choosing a selection from a fixture where I didn’t see value in any of the 3 outcomes. If I allowed myself to skip matches, I would have been more selective.

But if I seriously wanted to improve my results and earn a profit from the Premier League betting markets, then I’d need something more than just my opinion. That’s for sure.

The bottom line is: you and I may know more about football than others do, but we still need to know something more than the crowd in order to be profitable. So I hope this article prevents you from being too much of a Mug going forward!

 

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The Truth About Twitter Tipsters & Bookmaker Affiliations https://punter2pro.com/twitter-tipsters-bookmaker-affiliates/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=twitter-tipsters-bookmaker-affiliates https://punter2pro.com/twitter-tipsters-bookmaker-affiliates/#comments Wed, 10 Aug 2022 11:22:23 +0000 http://tobyaldous.com/?p=1240 Over the last couple of years there’s been some negative media attention on the “Twitter Tipsters” — the guys that tweet sports betting tips to their followers. Vice Sports published an ...

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Over the last couple of years there’s been some negative media attention on the “Twitter Tipsters” — the guys that tweet sports betting tips to their followers. Vice Sports published an article which whole-wholeheartedly slated them, questioned their credentials, their honesty and what they actually offer to punters.

Do Twitter Tipsters deserve the criticism?

I have some experience in this field, so I’m able to offer a fresh perspective.

 

Bookmaker Affiliate Schemes

Firstly, let’s take a look at how Twitter Tipsters earn a profit.

What Vice Sports drew attention to in their article was that the ‘Affiliate Tipsters‘ earn money when the very people they are advising lose theirs. This is absolutely true for affiliates under a Revenue Share scheme, and this arrangement helps to explain why so many Tipsters are motivated to constantly share their so-called “knowledge” with the public.


How the “Revenue Share” Model Works

A Bookmaker’s affiliate scheme involves a referrer (the Tipster in this case), who will be paid a monthly commission when referred players collectivively lose money. This is in the region of 10-40% of the net revenue.

Bare in mind that Bookmakers — and by extension, Revenue Share affiliates — only earn when their players lose. So there’s every incentive for the affiliate Tipster to build a base of customers that loses rather than wins.

It sounds cynical, but the best scenario affiliate Tipsters could hope for is that punters sign up to Bookmakers through their tracking links and lose large sums of money by following their bets. This leads on to the big question about social media Tipsters…

 

Why Social Media Tipsters Lose

Just like with winning, it’s also difficult to predict what’s going to lose in sports betting. If it were that simple we could easily earn a living from sports betting by Laying “losing” selections on Betfair. So I don’t believe that social media tipsters are purposely giving losing bets.

But here’s the issue I have: Tipsters should be recommending you the best odds. These are found on a betting exchange or a sharp Bookmaker. Instead they’re recommending retail Bookmakers, where you’ll get inferior odds, and will grind a loss in the long term.

The bottom line is that Bookmaker affiliates earn a lot more from the hefty share of Bookmaker losses than a share of the (relatively minuscule) commission earned on winnings from the Exchange. In other words, there’s little motivation to promote betting exchanges over Bookies.


  • £100

    New customer offer. Place 5 x €/£10 or more bets to receive €/£20 in free bets. Repeat up to 5 times to receive maximum €/£100 bonus. Min odds 1/2 (1.5). Exchange bets excluded. T&Cs apply.

    #ad. 18+, begambleaware.org, T&Cs Apply


Note: Some Tipsters charge a % on winnings. This carries its own risks. Learn more from my post: Will Tipsters Make Me Money?

 

Psychology of Social Media Gamblers

Here’s an interesting counter-argument: how do tipsters continue to maintain such large followings if they lead players to a loss?

It comes down to psychology. There’s no shortage of punters looking to blindly follow tips on Twitter, without ever doing the required research into a Tipster’s long term profitability. It’s not uncommon for gamblers to observe one or two legitimately winning tips and then attempt to replicate that.

Furthermore, some gamblers will keep faith even if they’re losing — putting the losing run down to a bad streak rather than a flawed system.

There’s also a lot of underhanded tactics going on. Some social media Tipster have been known to involve mates, colleagues, associates, and false identities to propagate positive feedback on their page to entice more followers.

Sure, some followers will see the cracks appearing sooner than others. But those people alone aren’t enough to slow down a huge collective of keen gamblers.

 

The (Positive) Social Element That’s Ignored

There’s no end of punters looking to be spoon-fed selections for upcoming events. But, you know what — who am I or anyone else to criticise that?

While there are obvious flaws in following Tipsters on Twitter, it’s understated that a lot of punters do simply enjoy betting within a community. Twitter is the perfect platform for both Tipsters and sports bettors to offer an opinion on sport, to brag/celebrate about winnings in front of a crowd, and to soak up losses together.

While gamblers are characterised as being dangerously optimistic, I don’t believe that all followers of Twitter Tipsters are victims, per se. Only a low percentage genuinely believe they’re going to earn huge profits; the vast majority are just gambling for fun.

 

My Experience As A Twitter Tipster

I used to fire out betting stats on Twitter. Does this make me a hypocrite?

My approach was slightly different to most social media tipsters. I always stated that the stats I provided were there to assist bettors in making informed bets. Nothing was speculative, it all came from an automated system.

Importantly, I never guaranteed profits and quoted Betfair prices because they were the best value. For lack of a better term, the Punter2Pro Twitter was a “betting aid.

However, becoming a betting aid and providing (seemingly) unrivalled statistics had limited success on Twitter. Whie feedback from professionals was positive, the majority of gamblers saw my account as overbaring, and “too much effort”. After all, another Twitter account would guarantee its followers would be rich within a month — why bother with Punter2Pro?


the suggestions were based on market data.

Twitter Tipsters


Who knows, maybe it just needed a little more time to catch on.

Anyhow, due to the data collection required, providing automated tips was an expensive project to run so it eventually came to a halt.

If you’re looking for the most popular Twitter betting accounts, check out the article: Top Twitter Tipsters To Follow

 

Finding Profitable Tipsters

As I regularly preach on this blog, following Tipsters doesn’t always align with the principles of value betting.

The biggest problem with Social Media tipping is accountability and honesty. Profit-and-loss sheets are rarely kept, and some are fake/incomplete.


Tips For Using Social Media Tipsters

If you decide to follow the selections from a Twitter Tipster, you ought to at the very least:

  • Verify the performance of the account yourself — preferably over a lot of “shadow” bets.
  • Limit you stake sizes to a small amount.
  • Shop around for the best odds yourself as opposed to backing where the Tipster tells you to (crucial).
  • Avoid following anyone that gives advice like “nevermind the losses, let’s re-load and go again tomorrow Lads!”
  • Treat success stories — such as evidence/screenshots of winnings — with a pinch of salt. Many Tipster Twitter accounts involve associates. You can’t believe everything you read.

Take Historical Records Lightly

Be aware that it’s easy for a Tipster to fake a historical record of bets without detection.

I once documented my experience with an online tipster service which had a professional-looking website, payment gateway and immaculate track record. Yet I came to find that the profit/loss records were deceitful. This particular service documented odds which existed at some point in time — but were infeasible to obtain in real life.


Imagine odds settled at 5.0 (pre-race) but peaked at 9.0 earlier in the day. This service consistently recorded odds of close to 9.0 as their advised odds. This heavily bloated the profit.


The moral here is to verify that the odds and results quoted by any Tipster are actually achievable in practice. It’s vitally important.

 

My Conclusion on Twitter Tipping

I don’t think there’s anything wrong with giving/receiving betting advice. It actually brings a sociable element to what’s often solitary.

But there are a lot of social media Tipsters using affiliate links for bookmakers, primarily motivated to raise turnover — not to guide their players to a profit. So it’s common to find Twitter Tipsters saying things like:


“we’re releasing all our tips tonight lads — load up your Bet365 accounts and we’ll take them down!”.


But as I’ve made clear in this post: following advice like this isn’t going to be profitable. Bet365 would not allow their own affiliates to “take them down”.

Needless to say, I’m not a believer in following Twitter Tipsters. But it’s the Bookmakers that facilitated this whole game to begin with, and allowed it to spiral out of control to the point that gambling regulators have now had to step in by outlining more stringent advertising rules for social media.

So my advice is to always carefully assess Twitter Tipsters on an individual basis, or simply look elsewhere.

You might want to…

 

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Sharp & Soft Bookmakers — The Differences Explained https://punter2pro.com/sharp-soft-bookmakers-mean-betting/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=sharp-soft-bookmakers-mean-betting https://punter2pro.com/sharp-soft-bookmakers-mean-betting/#comments Mon, 08 Aug 2022 10:41:28 +0000 https://punter2pro.com/?p=6810 There are two types of Bookmakers: Sharp and Soft. So what’s the difference between them? In this article I explain how Sharp and Soft Bookmakers produce their odds, and what ...

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There are two types of Bookmakers: Sharp and Soft. So what’s the difference between them?

In this article I explain how Sharp and Soft Bookmakers produce their odds, and what it means for sports bettors.

 

Sharp Bookmakers

Sharp bookmakers use sophisticated systems to compile their own odds. They have the ability to set prices, and adjust their lines very quickly. This process is almost entirely automated.

Due to their speed, precision and knowledge, Sharp bookmakers consistently provide odds that are close to the true probabilities of sporting outcomes, and similar to those found on betting exchanges. This means they’re able to offer better value odds to players, working on a “high volume, low margin” model.

“Sharps”, as they’re known, are not usually concerned about being picked off by smart bettors, because their pricing models are accurate and reliable. In fact, several of them hold a “Winners Welcome” policy, enabling professional or high roller clients to place large stakes without restrictions being imposed.


Pros

  • Low margins. This means that casual players lose a lot less over time than they would using Soft Bookies
  • Winners are often welcomed. Account restricions are less common. Arbitrage is even encouraged by a few of the Sharps.

Cons

  • No frills. The main focus is on the odds and less so on other forms of entertainment.

List of Sharp Bookmakers

  • Pinnacle – Sharpest sportsbook even promoting sports arbitrage.
  • SBObet
  • 188bet
  • 12bet
  • BetISN
  • Dafabet
  • Betonline
  • Betcris
  • Bookmaker EU
  • Cloudbet

 

Soft Bookmakers

Soft Bookmakers use less sophisticated methods to set their prices. Instead of calculating accurate probabilities for events, they predominantly monitor the odds offered by Sharps and the Betting Exchanges and base their prices around those.

While Soft Bookmakers do use automated systems to track/monitor market prices, and employ traders to manually manage their risk, they’re much slower to react to events than Sharps. This means that the Soft Bookmakers lag behind, leaving their odds open to exploitation from professional sports bettors.

Soft Bookmakers counteract their vulnerabilities by incorporating a large margin into their odds. This means that the average recreational punter will be a lot worse off using Soft Bookmakers than Sharps. Additionally, Soft Bookmakers focus more of their tech and personnel on identifying profitable bettors and, controversially, restricting their stakes and closing their accounts.


Pros

  • Slow moving prices. This means that plenty of arbitrage and value opportunities occur
  • Wide variety of gambling products. This includes promotions and reward schemes.

Cons

  • Inferior odds. Sharp Bookmakers and Betting Exchanges have better prices
  • No longevity for pros. Profitable players will inevitably have to move on to another site.

List of Soft Bookmakers

There are countless Soft Bookmakers — far too many to list them all! But here are some of the most popular brands:

  • William Hill
  • Coral
  • Bet365
  • Ladbrokes
  • Paddy Power
  • 888 Sport
  • Bwin
  • Unibet

 

Why Are Soft Bookmakers So Popular?

It’s a good question. If Sharps offer more value, why do so many players continue to use Softs?

The main reason is because Soft bookmakers invest so heavily into branding and promoting their services. Most punters simply don’t look elsewhere. After all, taking higher margins means they can afford to invest in advertising. free bets, affiliate incentives, and TV/radio campaigns.

It’s also worth noting that many Soft Bookmakers (particularly in the UK) have also leveraged from their legacy of high street betting shops. Long before the rise of the internet, several Bookies built up their reputation and client base. Naturally, the public recognises the brand and sticks to what they know and trust.

 

What’s Involved In Setting Odds?

Put simply, setting odds is about making estimations about events.

Once upon a time bookmakers manually estimated probabilities of sports events based on past performance and set their odds accordingly — like in the hit TV show Peaky Blinders. The process wasn’t particularly accurate, but that didn’t matter because the skill was in creating a large enough overround (advantage) that would ensure the bookmaker took bets on all sides, and generated a profit in almost any scenario. This practice hasn’t been disregarded — but there’s a lot more involved in pricing odds since online betting commenced.

Nowadays bookies have automated processes to monitor the odds from their competitors and the betting exchanges — where the public creates prices organically. They have the ability to react to breaking news (e.g. player injuries in football),  changes in circumstances (e.g. the weather in horse racing), or the opinon of the public (represented on the Betting Exchange). It’s these factors, among many others, that determines when a bookmaker decides adjust their odds, and by how much.

The sophistication level of the approach used to price up odds varies greatly between bookies. As a general rule, Sharps are the trend setters that move early, and respond quickly to new information. Softs tend to follow suit.

 

Sharp Or Soft — What’s Best?

On one hand Sharp Bookmakers offer superior prices to Softs which, on the surface, makes them more attractive. The flip side is that they’re very tough to beat.

To consistently beat Sharp Bookmakers bettors must develop a pricing model that’s, at least, equal to that used by the Sharps. Very few bettors are able to achieve that. Hence Sharp bookmakers such as Pinnacle aren’t concerned about professional bettors eating into their profits, and rarely limit or close their accounts.

Soft bookmakers, although mainly aimed at the retail end of the market, are far easier to exploit than the Sharp bookmakers. For instance, when a Sharp bookmaker moves their lines, often the Soft bookmaker is slow to react and remains out of sync for a period of time. This is how arbitratge and value betting opporunties arise — which are profitable for bettors. Rarely does such an occurence happen between two Sharp bookmakers.

The majority of professional sports bettors regularly utilise Soft books — for as long as they’ll allow them to. But it’s a means to an end. So the ultimate pro will progress onto the Betting Exchanges to become a trader, or in rare cases, successfully extract value from the Sharps where they won’t face restrictions.

If you’re looking to access Sharp Bookmakers with industry-leading odds, I can recommend the following Bet Brokers:


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July 2022 | Top Football Tipsters Of The Month https://punter2pro.com/july-2022-top-football-tipsters/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=july-2022-top-football-tipsters https://punter2pro.com/july-2022-top-football-tipsters/#respond Fri, 05 Aug 2022 22:30:33 +0000 https://punter2pro.com/?p=19694 Here’s the top 10 Football Tipsters for July 2022. I’ve used Tipstrr to produce the list. All records are thoroughly proofed. To learn more, check out my Tipstrr Review. The ...

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Here’s the top 10 Football Tipsters for July 2022.

I’ve used Tipstrr to produce the list. All records are thoroughly proofed. To learn more, check out my Tipstrr Review.

The following stats assume a flat £20 stake was placed on every football tip.


Rank

Tipster

Tips

ROI

Profit

1 Tipster 1986 22 40.9% £180.16 SUBSCRIBE »
2 Brasil Futebol 53 31.4% £569.80 SUBSCRIBE »
3 Real FC Tips 26 30.7% £159.80 SUBSCRIBE »
4 Speculate To Accumulator 37 61.1% £452.29 SUBSCRIBE »
5 Doppelt 47 29.7% £278.78 SUBSCRIBE »
6 Zahoripicks 29 134.30% £134.30 SUBSCRIBE »
7 Bethoven 116 20.2% £467.80 SUBSCRIBE »
8 Klinsmann 35 17.8% £124.80 SUBSCRIBE »
9 Doublez 98 16.6% £324.42 SUBSCRIBE »
10 Billy Picks 25 16.4% £82.20 SUBSCRIBE »

 

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July 2022 | Top Horse Racing Tipsters Of The Month https://punter2pro.com/july-2022-top-horse-racing-tipsters/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=july-2022-top-horse-racing-tipsters https://punter2pro.com/july-2022-top-horse-racing-tipsters/#respond Thu, 04 Aug 2022 10:46:09 +0000 https://punter2pro.com/?p=19744 Here’s the top 10 Horse Racing Tipsters for July 2022. I’ve used Tipstrr to produce the list. All records are thoroughly proofed. To learn more, check out my Tipstrr Review. ...

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Here’s the top 10 Horse Racing Tipsters for July 2022.

I’ve used Tipstrr to produce the list. All records are thoroughly proofed. To learn more, check out my Tipstrr Review.

The following stats assume a flat £20 stake was placed on every horse racing tip.


Rank

Tipster

Tips

ROI

Profit

1 Anglo Racing 32 84.1% £538.32 SUBSCRIBE »
2 Outsider Speed Picks 81 82.5% £1,337.00 SUBSCRIBE »
3 Hawksford Racing 93 76.0% £1,412.91 SUBSCRIBE »
4 BlindGuess 36 68.5% £492.92 SUBSCRIBE »
5 Flying Horse Stars 86 63.1% £1,086.00 SUBSCRIBE »
6 The Banker 57 57.8% £658.81 SUBSCRIBE »
7 ChampionsTips1 126 53.8% £1,356.00 SUBSCRIBE »
8 The Daily Punt 84 55.8% £937.07 SUBSCRIBE »
9 Irish Fancies 46 86.8% £798.98 SUBSCRIBE »
10 TipsterTaylor2 229 50.0% £290 SUBSCRIBE »

 

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Betting Strike Rate Explained | The Importance Of Win/Hit Rates https://punter2pro.com/betting-strike-rate-explained-win-hit/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=betting-strike-rate-explained-win-hit https://punter2pro.com/betting-strike-rate-explained-win-hit/#comments Fri, 29 Jul 2022 10:54:28 +0000 http://punter2pro.com/?p=2429 The Strike Rate is a term used to quantify, in terms of frequency, the amount a system, tipster or bettor wins. Here’s everything you need to know what the Strike ...

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The Strike Rate is a term used to quantify, in terms of frequency, the amount a system, tipster or bettor wins.

Here’s everything you need to know what the Strike Rate and the impact it has on your betting profitability.

 

What Is The Strike Rate?

The Strike Rate — also known as ‘Win Rate’ or ‘Hit Rate’ —  is expressed as a percentage and is used to measure the number of winning bets in a sample. For example:

  • If you place 100 bets and 25 of them win, your strike rate is 25%.
  • If you place 10 bets and 5 of them win, your Strike rate is 50%.

The only way to determine a Strike Rate is by collecting more data. Once you have a substantial record of bets, you can measure the percentage of winners. More on that later.

 

A ‘Good’ Strike Rate

It’s a common misconception that a high strike rate automatically means it’s ‘good’. Strike Rates are relative to the price range you target, and can only be assessed accordingly.

For instance, if you consistently target outcomes at around…

  • 2.0 decimal odds, then you’d expect your Strike Rate to be around 50%. You would therefore determine that anything below 50% is ‘bad’ and anything above it is ‘good’.
  • 10.0 decimal odds, then you’d expect your Strike Rate to be around 10%. You would therefore deterime that anything below 10% is ‘bad’ and anything above it is ‘good’.

Importantly, you want your Strike Rate to consistently out-perform the implied chance of an event occurring. Let’s talk more on this.

 

The Real-Life Chance

Every outcome has a real-life chance of occurring. Betting odds apprximate that chance with differing levels of accuracy.

For example, if the real-life chance of a an underdog team beating a favourite is 20%, then the correct odds would be 5.0 decimal odds (because 1 / 20% = 5.0). But it’s important to note that:

  • Bookmakers form odds that overestimate the chance of an event occurring by lowering their prices. Those 5.0 ‘correct’ odds are more likely to be 4.0 or 4.5.
  • Betting exchanges form odds that more accurately estimate the chance of an event occurring. These odds are said to be “sharp“.

Therefore, if you have nothing else to go by, the Betfair odds are a good estimator of the fair price (in liquid markets, especially), and the real-life chance of something happening.

So how does the real life chance relate to Strike Rates?

Well, in sports betting it’s vitally important to accurately predict the real-life chance of something happening — because that’s where the true Strike Rate will inevitably settle. So if you consistently bet on events with a 75% chance of winning, then that’s what your Strike Rate is going to end up as. As a sports bettor, there’s nothing you can do to change that.

But what you can do is use your knowledge of the real-life chance to finds odds that will pay a profit over the long term. This is essentially value betting — the key to winning in the long run.

 

Importance of A Large Data Set

The only way to find a Strike Rate is to trial a strategy and a record the win %. It’s as simple as that.

A Strike Rate can be produced from a very small set of data. But it’s important to remember that the Strike Rate will only become meaningful once you’ve collected a substantial set of data points — hundreds, ideally thousands, of bets.

The problem with producing a Strike Rate on a small sample size is that it’s easily impacted by Variance.


The Impact of Variance

Swings in sports betting results can be described as “variance” in the results. Variance increases when you use high odds, and decreases with lower odds.

So if, for example, your average odds implied a 50% chance of winning (2.0 decimal odds), then you’d expect more predictability in the results than you would than if there was an implied 20% chance of winning each bet (5.0 decimal odds). The Strike Rate is more likely to be skewed by a set of high odds bets.

You also have to consider streaks in results. We refer to it as good and bad luck — but it’s completely natural from a mathematical standpoint. Those good and bad spells will have a huge impact to the Strike Rate if the sample is too small.

Lastly, a small sample runs the risk of producing a Strike Rate that masks the over-achievement from a set of minus EV bets. Or, on the other hand, hides the under-achievement from a set of plus EV value bets. These cases would, again, lead to false conclusions about a strategy’s profitability.


Variance is one major reason why a tipster’s Strike Rate (and ROI) should be taken with a pinch of salt until there’s a substantial set of bets to judge them by. 


Standard Deviation — A Step Further

To fully determine whether or not you have an edge in your bets, then you might want roper metric to determine whether your results are truly “fair”. This is where the standard deviation comes in.

The standard deviation is a number used to tell how measurements for a group are spread out from the average (mean), or expected value. A low standard deviation means that most of the numbers are very close to the average. A high standard deviation means that the numbers are spread out.

For sports betting, you can compare the expected chance (using your own % calculations) against the measurements (the actual hit rate). What you hope for is a fairly low standard deviation.

I’m not a maths teacher, so I won’t show you step-by-step instructions of how to work out the standard deviation! There’s plenty of tutorials and calculators online. It’s not unique to sports betting by any means.

 

Strike Rates: The Important Takeaway

In any betting strategy the Strike Rate itself is meaningless unless the odds represent value.

So if you’re someone that only ever bets on extremely strong favourites at average odds of 1.1, your Strike Rate will be very high — because these odds have an implied 90.9% chance of winning. But ultimately there’s no gain if those odds weren’t high enough to generate a positive ROI over the long-term.

Similarly, betting on only high odds — let’s say 200.0 — would be certain to produce an extremely low Strike Rate given the implied 0.5% chance of winning. Yet if those odds are well-priced, the strategy should still be profitable long term, albeit very high risk!

Whether you have a low or a high Strike Rate, the odds are everything. Strike Rates only reveal the observed win rate — not the profitability of a betting strategy.


Finding Value Is Key

Refining your bet selection method is the most important aspect of your strategy. That should be your focus.

You have to gauge the real probability of an event happening in order to identify “plus ev” value bets in the market, and avoid taking fair or “minus ev” odds (which will not turn you a profit in the long run).

To improve your Strike Rate I recommend checking out:

  1. Profitable Value Bet Finders
  2. Find Top Rated Sports Tipsters
  3. Create Your Own Football Betting Model

 

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