Since England’s iconic World Cup triumph in 1966, the Three Lions have taken part in every tournament bar a few, offering plenty of drama, heartbreak, and just enough hope to keep fans, and perhaps punters, coming back for more.
But what if, instead of just watching, you’d bet £10 on England to win every World Cup match from 1966 onward? The experts at Bet442 have crunched the numbers to see whether patriotic punting would have paid off.
Article Contents
The Ground Rules
To keep things simple and consistent, we’ll assume:
- A £10 stake on England to win each individual match (not draws or progressing in tournaments).
- No accumulator bets — each match is a standalone wager.
- If England wins, you get your payout based on historical odds. If they draw or lose, the £10 is lost.
- For matches decided on penalties, the result at the end of regular and extra time counts (i.e., a draw if level after 120 minutes).
England’s World Cup Record (1966–2022)
From 1966 to 2022, England played 74 World Cup matches. Here’s the breakdown:
- Wins: 31
- Draws: 21
- Losses: 22
So, betting £10 on each match would mean:
- Total matches bet on: 74
- Total amount staked: £740
Estimated Returns: The Win Factor
We’ll use average historical odds for England wins in each tournament (estimates based on match-specific odds data where available):
- Group Stage Wins: Odds typically ranged from 1.5 to 2.0
- Knockout Stage Wins: Odds ranged from 2.2 to 3.5
- Let’s estimate an average return of £18 per winning bet (includes £10 stake + £8 profit), which is roughly conservative considering odds fluctuations.
With 31 wins:
- Total winnings = 31 wins × £18 = £558
Losses and Draws: The Cost
For the 43 matches that England didn’t win:
- 43 × £10 = £430 lost
Net Profit or Loss?
- Total winnings: £558
- Total losses: £430
- Net result: +£128
Surprisingly, you’d be in profit, just barely, by betting on England to win every match, despite some disappointing campaigns.
Biggest Paydays & Costliest Results
Biggest Paydays: Wins against strong sides like Argentina (2002), Colombia (2018), or Germany (2022) would have offered better odds and boosted returns.
Costliest Years: Missing the 1974, 1978, and 1994 tournaments meant no bets (or losses), but disastrous outings like 2014 (3 matches, 1 point) would have eaten up cash.
What If You Bet £10 On The Correct Result Every Match?
An alternate scenario: betting £10 on England to win, lose, or draw correctly each match based on actual outcomes (i.e., match result betting). Assuming average odds:
- Wins (31): £18 return each = £558
- Draws (21): Est. average payout of £30 (draw odds tend to be 3.0 or more) = £630
- Losses (22): Not betting on losses, so in this hypothetical strategy, we’d lose £10 on each = £220 loss
- Total winnings: £558 (wins) + £630 (draws) = £1,188
- Total losses: £220
- Net result: +£968
In this scenario, it’s clear that the ability to predict the draws provides a much more lucrative outcome.
Takeaway: Is Betting on The Three Lions Worth It?
If you had unwavering belief in England’s ability to win every match, you’d be slightly ahead, but not by much. Using historical data to make more informed bets, including predicting draws or key results, could have improved outcomes, but no strategy guarantees success.
It’s important to remember that betting should always be done responsibly and within your means. Betting on football can add excitement to the game, but it should never be seen as a way to make money or replace regular income.
Ultimately, whether you back The Three Lions or any other team, keeping control and betting for fun is the safest approach.
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