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Category: Prediction & Analysis

Should You Follow Your Gut In Sports Betting? - Downsides Of Emotions
All / Attitude & Mindset / Prediction & Analysis

Should You Follow Your Gut In Sports Betting? – Downsides Of Emotions

A gut feeling is a reflection of your intuition and is usually based on past experiences and knowledge. However, it’s not a reliable source of information, and hence should not …

Hindsight Bias Explained | Did You Really Know It All Along?
All / Attitude & Mindset / Football / Prediction & Analysis

Hindsight Bias Explained | Did You Really Know It All Along?

The term “hindsight bias” refers to the tendency of viewing past events as more predictable than they really were. For example, many sports believe that they knew the outcome of …

Pedigree & Thoroughbreds | How Breeding Impacts Horse Racing
All / Horse Racing / Prediction & Analysis / Value Betting

Pedigree & Thoroughbreds | How Breeding Impacts Horse Racing

Some horse racing bettors take a keen interest in the pedigree of horses as this can provide an insight to likely race winners. Most often these bettors are looking to …

Mug Betting -- Why Regular Punters Eventually Lose
All / Attitude & Mindset / Football / Prediction & Analysis

Mug Betting — Why Regular Punters Will Inevitably Lose

A Mug Bet is simply betting without any advantage or ‘edge’. The vast majority of sports bettors can be classified as “Mug Bettors” or “Mugs” for short, as harsh as …

Betting Strike Rate Explained | The Importance Of Win/Hit Rates
All / Must-Reads / Prediction & Analysis / Value Betting

Betting Strike Rate Explained | The Importance Of Win/Hit Rates

The Strike Rate is a term used to quantify, in terms of frequency, the amount a system, tipster or bettor wins. Here’s everything you need to know what the Strike …

Best Sites For Free Football Statistics | Top Soccer Stats Websites
All / Basic Stats / Football / Hall Of Fame / Popular / Prediction & Analysis

Best Sites For Free Football Statistics | Top Soccer Stats Websites

Are you looking for free football statistics? Here’s the sites I recommend.   1. Fbref Fbref is a website that collects statistics on football teams and players from around the …

What Stats Won't Tell You About Football - Limitations of Statistics
All / Football / Prediction & Analysis

What Stats Won’t Tell You About Football – Limitations of Statistics

Are you trying to predict football matches? It’s pretty hard, right? Analysing statistics is a great starting point. But football, more so than most other sports, has so many different …

How Data Science Affects Sports Betting | Bookmaker & Player Perspectives
All / Prediction & Analysis / Value Betting

How Data Science Affects Sports Betting | Bookmaker & Player Perspectives

Casual sports bettors enjoy the heightened level of excitement that comes with placing wagers on their favourite sporting events. But what chance of success do they really have? What statistical …

Expected Goals (xG) Explained & How To Use It For Football Betting
All / Football / Prediction & Analysis

Expected Goals (xG) Explained & How To Use It For Football Betting

While all goals in football are worth an equal amount (1), the likelihood of an attempt being scored varies enormously. Therefore basic high-level statistics such as ‘shots on target’ provide …

The Impact of Weather On Horse Racing & The Going
All / Horse Racing / Prediction & Analysis

The Impact of Weather On Horse Racing & The Going

Extreme weather heavily impacts the going. It complicates — and potentially ruins — racedays for everyone involved. Yet in less extreme cases the weather may prove to be a useful …

The Paramount Importance Of Sample Size In Betting Analysis
All / Horse Racing / Must-Reads / Prediction & Analysis

The Paramount Importance Of Sample Size In Betting Analysis

Sample size, in a sports betting context, refers to the amount of data items you base your analyses around. Short-term results from a small (and insignificant) sample do not say …

Best Sites For Horse Racing Statistics | Form Databases
All / Basic Stats / Hall Of Fame / Horse Racing / Popular / Prediction & Analysis

Best Sites For Horse Racing Statistics | Form Databases

In search of an edge in their bets, horse racing bettors analyse data more than ever before . Horse racing pioneered the use of historical data analysis as a basis …

An Introduction To Sports & Casino Betting Strategies
All / Prediction & Analysis

An Introduction To Sports & Casino Betting Strategies

There aren’t many approaches to gambling that’ll generate consistent profits over the long-term. In this beginner’s article I’ll run through some of the basic principles behind sports and casino strategies …

How Do I Know If My Betting Results Were Luck Or Skill?
All / Must-Reads / Prediction & Analysis / Value Betting

How Do I Know If My Betting Results Were Luck Or Skill?

I recently contributed an answer to the Trademate Sports ‘Industry Experts’ blog series for the question: how can I determine whether my betting results were based on luck or skill? …

10 Common Betting Strategy Mistakes (Biggest Flaws)
All / Must-Reads / Prediction & Analysis / Sports Trading / Value Betting

10 Common Betting Strategy Mistakes (Biggest Flaws)

Trying to devise your own profitable betting strategy? It’s highly challenging, time consuming — and there’s a distinct lack of resources to guide you. So there’s many wrong turns you’re …

How To Find The Luckiest Teams In Professional Football
All / Football / Prediction & Analysis

How To Find The Luckiest Teams In Professional Football

Luck plays a huge part in sport. But there’s only so far good fortune will carry a football team over the long-run. In time, weak teams will be found out …

Bettingmetrics - Analyse Your Betting Results The Easy Way
All / Prediction & Analysis / Reviews / Sports Trading

Analyse Your Betting Results With Betting.com (Formerly Bettingmetrics)

I’ve written several posts that encourage readers to analyse past data in order to identify trends (see football prediction models). Data analysis is, of course, a fundamental skill if you’re looking …

Using The Weight Of Money For Betting Market Prediction (WoM)
All / Prediction & Analysis / Sports Trading

Using The Weight Of Money For Betting Market Prediction (WoM)

The Weight of Money (WoM) is represented by a percentage value and shows when the market is “balanced” or “unbalanced”. It’s used by Betfair traders to predict whether the odds …

Betting Variance — Am I Really Winning?
All / Attitude & Mindset / Must-Reads / Prediction & Analysis

Betting Variance — Am I Really Winning?

One of the biggest problems in gambling is that people convince themselves that their winning streaks were more than just pure chance. But it’s not about what you’ve made before, or …

The Basics Of Creating A Football Prediction Betting Model
All / Football / Popular / Prediction & Analysis

The Basics Of Creating A Football Prediction Betting Model

Many mathematical methods can be used to create football prediction models. I’ve no doubt that you could spend years perfecting a ‘betting system’. But take it from me: applying statistics to sports betting is not …

Expected value EV
All / Must-Reads / Prediction & Analysis / Value Betting

Calculate Expected Value (EV) — The ‘Edge’ Of Your Bets

Expected Value (EV) is a measure of how much a bettor should expect to win or lose per bet (or collection of bets) placed on the same odds time and …

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