Should You Follow Your Gut In Sports Betting? – Downsides Of Emotions
A gut feeling is a reflection of your intuition and is usually based on past experiences and knowledge. However, it’s not a reliable source of information, and hence should not …
Hindsight Bias Explained | Did You Really Know It All Along?
The term “hindsight bias” refers to the tendency of viewing past events as more predictable than they really were. For example, many sports believe that they knew the outcome of …
Pedigree & Thoroughbreds | How Breeding Impacts Horse Racing
Some horse racing bettors take a keen interest in the pedigree of horses as this can provide an insight to likely race winners. Most often these bettors are looking to …
Mug Betting — Why Regular Punters Will Inevitably Lose
A Mug Bet is simply betting without any advantage or ‘edge’. The vast majority of sports bettors can be classified as “Mug Bettors” or “Mugs” for short, as harsh as …
Betting Strike Rate Explained | The Importance Of Win/Hit Rates
The Strike Rate is a term used to quantify, in terms of frequency, the amount a system, tipster or bettor wins. Here’s everything you need to know what the Strike …
Best Sites For Free Football Statistics | Top Soccer Stats Websites
Are you looking for free football statistics? Here’s the sites I recommend. 1. Fbref Fbref is a website that collects statistics on football teams and players from around the …
What Stats Won’t Tell You About Football – Limitations of Statistics
Are you trying to predict football matches? It’s pretty hard, right? Analysing statistics is a great starting point. But football, more so than most other sports, has so many different …
How Data Science Affects Sports Betting | Bookmaker & Player Perspectives
Casual sports bettors enjoy the heightened level of excitement that comes with placing wagers on their favourite sporting events. But what chance of success do they really have? What statistical …
Expected Goals (xG) Explained & How To Use It For Football Betting
While all goals in football are worth an equal amount (1), the likelihood of an attempt being scored varies enormously. Therefore basic high-level statistics such as ‘shots on target’ provide …
The Impact of Weather On Horse Racing & The Going
Extreme weather heavily impacts the going. It complicates — and potentially ruins — racedays for everyone involved. Yet in less extreme cases the weather may prove to be a useful …
The Paramount Importance Of Sample Size In Betting Analysis
Sample size, in a sports betting context, refers to the amount of data items you base your analyses around. Short-term results from a small (and insignificant) sample do not say …
Best Sites For Horse Racing Statistics | Form Databases
In search of an edge in their bets, horse racing bettors analyse data more than ever before . Horse racing pioneered the use of historical data analysis as a basis …
An Introduction To Sports & Casino Betting Strategies
There aren’t many approaches to gambling that’ll generate consistent profits over the long-term. In this beginner’s article I’ll run through some of the basic principles behind sports and casino strategies …
How Do I Know If My Betting Results Were Luck Or Skill?
I recently contributed an answer to the Trademate Sports ‘Industry Experts’ blog series for the question: how can I determine whether my betting results were based on luck or skill? …
10 Common Betting Strategy Mistakes (Biggest Flaws)
Trying to devise your own profitable betting strategy? It’s highly challenging, time consuming — and there’s a distinct lack of resources to guide you. So there’s many wrong turns you’re …
How To Find The Luckiest Teams In Professional Football
Luck plays a huge part in sport. But there’s only so far good fortune will carry a football team over the long-run. In time, weak teams will be found out …
Analyse Your Betting Results With Betting.com (Formerly Bettingmetrics)
I’ve written several posts that encourage readers to analyse past data in order to identify trends (see football prediction models). Data analysis is, of course, a fundamental skill if you’re looking …
Using The Weight Of Money For Betting Market Prediction (WoM)
The Weight of Money (WoM) is represented by a percentage value and shows when the market is “balanced” or “unbalanced”. It’s used by Betfair traders to predict whether the odds …
Betting Variance — Am I Really Winning?
One of the biggest problems in gambling is that people convince themselves that their winning streaks were more than just pure chance. But it’s not about what you’ve made before, or …
The Basics Of Creating A Football Prediction Betting Model
Many mathematical methods can be used to create football prediction models. I’ve no doubt that you could spend years perfecting a ‘betting system’. But take it from me: applying statistics to sports betting is not …
Calculate Expected Value (EV) — The ‘Edge’ Of Your Bets
Expected Value (EV) is a measure of how much a bettor should expect to win or lose per bet (or collection of bets) placed on the same odds time and …