How Do I Know If My Betting Results Were Luck Or Skill?
I recently contributed an answer to the Trademate Sports ‘Industry Experts’ blog series for the question: how can I determine whether betting results were based on luck or skill? It’s …
10 Common Betting Strategy Mistakes (Biggest Flaws)
Trying to devise your own profitable betting strategy? It’s highly challenging, time consuming — and there’s a distinct lack of resources to guide you. So there’s many wrong turns you’re …
Who Are The Luckiest Football Teams?
Luck plays a huge part in sport. But there’s only so far good fortune will carry a football team over the long-run. In time, weak teams will be found out. …
How Expected Goals (xG) Will Change The Way We Bet On Football
Whilst all goals in football are worth an equal amount, the likelihood of a shot being scored varies. That’s where Expected Goals (xG) comes in. It’s a metric used in …
Analyse Your Betting Results The Easy Way With Bettingmetrics
I’ve written several posts that encourage readers to analyse past data in order to identify trends (see football prediction models). Data analysis is, of course, a fundamental skill if you’re looking …
My Premier League 2017/18 Top 4 Predictions
I’ve had plenty of time over the summer to reflect on last season and form my predictions for the new 2017/18 Premier League season. In this post I’ll firstly recap …
What Can We Learn About The 2016-17 Premier League Season?
It’s worth analysing the previous season as it gives an indication as to how the current one is likely to play out. Let’s focus on the top end of the …
Where Can I Find Free, Detailed Football Stats? (Football Analytics)
In previous posts I mentioned that you can download basic football stats from Football-Data.co.uk. However, this data doesn’t include much detail in terms of match analysis. In other words, it doesn’t …
My Favourite Sports Betting Blogs — 10 Of The Best
Want to learn more about professional sports betting? Looking for a source of inspiration? Well you could firstly read my posts from the Professional Betting section of this site… Alternatively, try …
Good Strike Rate? — Verify Your Results Are Realistic
There’s a genuine buzz that comes from “getting it right” — especially when you correctly predict something against the odds. This often manifests itself in a winning gambler’s swagger. But …
Am I Really Winning? — Betting Variance In Action
One of the biggest problems in gambling is that people convince themselves that their winning streaks were more than just pure chance. But it’s not about what you’ve made before, or …
Why Is Making Accurate Football Betting Predictions So Difficult?
Are you trying to accurately predict football matches? It’s pretty hard, right? I recently wrote the post ‘The Basics Of Creating A Football Prediction Betting Model‘ where I described various data-crunching methods I’d …
The Basics Of Creating A Football Prediction Betting Model
Many mathematical methods can be used to create football prediction models. I’ve no doubt that you could spend years perfecting a ‘betting system’. But take it from me: applying statistics to sports betting is not …
Calculate Expected Value (EV) — The ‘Edge’ Of Your Bets
Calculating the Expected Value (EV) is an important, and relatively simple skill that enables you to ensure that your sports bets have a player advantage or ‘edge’. I’ll explain how it …
Best Horse Racing Form & Stats Websites (Databases)
Sports punters analyse niche data items more than ever before. Horse racing pioneered the use of historical data analysis as a basis for predictions — but there surprisingly aren’t many good sources of ‘form’ …
Horse Pedigree — Breeding Winners Scientifically
Horse pedigree (“the thoroughbred”) is a breed best known known for agility, speed and spirit; all suitable characteristics for horse racing. Thoroughbreds are recognised as distance runners or sprinters, and their …
The Accuracy & Significance Of SP Odds
SP is an abbreviation for ‘Starting Price’ and until now has been widely associated with traditional bookmaking. You may want to bet at SP when there are no early fixed …
The Paramount Importance Of Sample Size In Betting Analysis
Short-term betting results don’t say with high ‘confidence’ how likely a strategy is to succeed long-term. The more results you have, the more clarity and accuracy you have in verifying the profitability …