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Category: Prediction & Analysis

Expected Goals xG Explained (Goal Expectation For Sports Betting, How it Works)
All / Football / Prediction & Analysis

Expected Goals (xG) Explained & How To Use It For Football Betting

While all goals in football are worth an equal amount (1), the likelihood of an attempt being scored varies enormously. Therefore basic high-level statistics such as ‘shots on target’ provide …

Rain Race Wet Weather Conditions Mud Horse
All / Horse Racing / Prediction & Analysis

The Impact of Weather On Horse Racing & The Going

Extreme weather heavily impacts the going. It complicates — and potentially ruins — racedays for everyone involved. Yet in less extreme cases the weather may prove to be a useful …

Sample Size Betting Strategy Large Small
All / Horse Racing / Must-Reads / Prediction & Analysis

The Paramount Importance Of Sample Size In Betting Analysis

Sample size, in a sports betting context, refers to the amount of data items you base your analyses around. Short-term results from a small (and insignificant) sample do not say …

Horseracing Databases, Stats, Form, Records - Horse Racing Form Sources
All / Basic Stats / Hall Of Fame / Horse Racing / Popular / Prediction & Analysis

Best Sites For Horse Racing Statistics | Form Databases

In search of an edge in their bets, horse racing bettors analyse data more than ever before . Horse racing pioneered the use of historical data analysis as a basis …

Could 2021 be the Hornets Year? - NBA Championship
All / Prediction & Analysis

Could 2021 be the Hornets Year? — NBA Championship

If you were to take a look at the DraftKings NBA betting you’d have to scroll some way down to find the Charlotte Hornets in the NBA Championship odds. Is …

2021 PGA Masters Tournament Tips -- Who To Look Out For
All / Prediction & Analysis

2021 PGA Masters Tournament Tips — Who To Look Out For

The 2020 Masters getting postponed until November turned out to be a blessing in disguise for golf fans. Just a few months later, and the world is about to descend …

An Introduction To Sports & Casino Betting Strategies
All / Prediction & Analysis

An Introduction To Sports & Casino Betting Strategies

There aren’t many approaches to gambling that’ll generate consistent profits over the long-term. In this beginner’s article I’ll run through some of the basic principles behind sports and casino strategies …

All / Horse Racing / Prediction & Analysis

Cheltenham 2021: Can Willie Mullins Deliver Profit for Punters?

It’s just a matter of days until the 2021 Cheltenham Festival (16th-19th March) gets underway. And even though there won’t be any fans in attendance to deliver the famous “Cheltenham …

Predicting the Next MVP in the NFL, NBA, MLB & NHL
All / Prediction & Analysis

Predicting the Next MVP in the NFL, NBA, MLB & NHL

Sports predictions serve so many purposes. First and foremost, they are discussion points. Fans use them to spur debates. Analysts use them to drive up interest and monetize those debates. …

How Do I Know If My Betting Results Were Luck Or Skill?
All / Must-Reads / Prediction & Analysis / Value Betting

How Do I Know If My Betting Results Were Luck Or Skill?

I recently contributed an answer to the Trademate Sports ‘Industry Experts’ blog series for the question: how can I determine whether my betting results were based on luck or skill? …

10 Most Common Mistakes In Devising A Betting Strategy
All / Must-Reads / Prediction & Analysis / Sports Trading / Value Betting

10 Common Betting Strategy Mistakes (Biggest Flaws)

Trying to devise your own profitable betting strategy? It’s highly challenging, time consuming — and there’s a distinct lack of resources to guide you. So there’s many wrong turns you’re …

All / Football / Prediction & Analysis

How To Find The Luckiest Teams In Professional Football

Luck plays a huge part in sport. But there’s only so far good fortune will carry a football team over the long-run. In time, weak teams will be found out …

Bettingmetrics - Analyse Your Betting Results The Easy Way
All / Prediction & Analysis / Reviews / Sports Trading

Analyse Your Betting Results With Betting.com (Formerly Bettingmetrics)

I’ve written several posts that encourage readers to analyse past data in order to identify trends (see football prediction models). Data analysis is, of course, a fundamental skill if you’re looking …

Premier League Top 4 Predictions (top four)
All / Football / Prediction & Analysis

My Premier League 2017/18 Top 4 Predictions

I’ve had plenty of time over the summer to reflect on last season and form my predictions for the new 2017/18 Premier League season. In this post I’ll firstly recap …

What Can We Learn About The 2016-17 Premier League Season?
All / Football / Prediction & Analysis

What Can We Learn About The 2016-17 Premier League Season?

It’s worth analysing the previous season as it gives an indication as to how the current one is likely to play out. Let’s focus on the top end of the …

Detailed, Free Football Stats (Football Analytics)
All / Basic Stats / Football / Hall Of Fame / Popular / Prediction & Analysis

Where Can I Find Free, Detailed Football Stats? (Football Analytics)

In previous posts I mentioned that you can download basic football stats from Football-Data.co.uk. However, this data doesn’t include much detail in terms of match analysis. In other words, it doesn’t …

Mug bets - betting on every Premier League fixture
All / Attitude & Mindset / Football / Prediction & Analysis

Can You Earn From Mug Betting On Every Premier League Fixture?

I placed an equal £5 stake on 270 Premier League fixtures and monitored my results. I didn’t analyse the games for a mathematical edge, and I didn’t use any trading techniques. I …

All / Hall Of Fame / News & Updates / Prediction & Analysis

My Favourite Sports Betting Blogs — 10 Of The Best

Want to learn more about professional sports betting? Looking for a source of inspiration? Well you could firstly read my posts from the Professional Betting section of this site… Alternatively, try …

Weight of Money Betting Market Exchange Betfair
All / Prediction & Analysis / Sports Trading

Using The Weight Of Money For Betting Market Prediction (WoM)

The Weight of Money (WoM) is represented by a percentage value and shows when the market is “balanced” or “unbalanced”. It’s used by Betfair traders to predict whether the odds …

Betting Strike Rate Winning Or Losing
All / Must-Reads / Prediction & Analysis / Value Betting

Betting Strike Rate — Are Your Results Realistic?

In sports betting there’s a genuine buzz that comes from “getting it right” — especially when you correctly predict something against the odds. This often manifests itself in a winning …

All / Attitude & Mindset / Must-Reads / Prediction & Analysis

Betting Variance — Am I Really Winning?

One of the biggest problems in gambling is that people convince themselves that their winning streaks were more than just pure chance. But it’s not about what you’ve made before, or …

Complexity Football Betting Bookmakers
All / Football / Prediction & Analysis

Why Is Making Accurate Football Betting Predictions So Difficult?

Are you trying to accurately predict football matches? It’s pretty hard, right? In my post ‘The Basics Of Creating A Football Prediction Betting Model‘ I described various data-crunching methods I’d applied …

Football Predicition Models Betting System
All / Football / Popular / Prediction & Analysis

The Basics Of Creating A Football Prediction Betting Model

Many mathematical methods can be used to create football prediction models. I’ve no doubt that you could spend years perfecting a ‘betting system’. But take it from me: applying statistics to sports betting is not …

Expected value EV
All / Must-Reads / Prediction & Analysis / Value Betting

Calculate Expected Value (EV) — The ‘Edge’ Of Your Bets

Expected Value (EV) is a measure of how much a bettor should expect to win or lose per bet (or collection of bets) placed on the same odds time and …

Pedigree Horse Winner Breeding DNA
All / Horse Racing / Prediction & Analysis / Value Betting

How Race Winners Are Bred | Horse Pedigree & Bloodlines

Horse Racing bettors often take a huge interest in the pedigree of horses as this can provide an insight to likely race winners. The “thoroughbred” is a breed best known …

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