Challenges In Adapting Betting Systems For A New Season
As we explore the landscape of football betting for the new season, two key questions arise: How can we compare new and established teams? And how can we keep our …
The Basics Of Football Prediction & Betting Systems
Predicting the outcome of football matches and making profitable bets is immensely difficult even for the most experienced bettors. The world of football is rife with uncertainty, noise, and numerous …
10 Common Betting Strategy Mistakes You Must Avoid
Are you attempting to create your own successful betting strategy? Be prepared to overcome various obstacles that can impede your progress and decrease your chances of success. While there is …
How Do I Know If My Betting Results Were Luck Or Skill?
I had the opportunity to contribute to the Trademate Sports ‘Industry Experts’ blog series, where I tackled a crucial issue that plagues many sports bettors: how do you distinguish between …
The Weight Of Money (WoM) Explained | Sports Market Prediction
One key concept in sports trading is the Weight of Money (WoM), which refers to the balance in the amount of money being traded on a particular market. The Weight …
Variance In Sports Betting | Understanding Swings In Results
Sports betting has its ups and downs, so it’s important to understand the concept of variance and how it can affect your results. Variance refers to the degree of uncertainty …
Expected Goals | How To Use xG For Football Betting
Football is a game where all goals are valued equally at 1, but not all attempts on goal are equally likely to result in a goal. Basic statistics like ‘shots …
Should You Follow Your Gut In Sports Betting? – Downsides Of Emotions
A gut feeling is a reflection of your intuition and is usually based on past experiences and knowledge. However, it’s not a reliable source of information, and hence should not …
Hindsight Bias Explained | Did You Really Know It All Along?
The term “hindsight bias” refers to the tendency of viewing past events as more predictable than they really were. For example, many sports believe that they knew the outcome of …
Pedigree & Thoroughbreds | How Breeding Impacts Horse Racing
Some horse racing bettors take a keen interest in the pedigree of horses as this can provide an insight to likely race winners. Most often these bettors are looking to …
Mug Betting | Why Regular Punters Inevitably Lose
A Mug Bet is simply betting without any advantage or ‘edge’. The vast majority of sports bettors can be classified as “Mug Bettors” or “Mugs” for short, as harsh as …
Betting Strike Rate Explained | The Importance Of Win/Hit Rates
The Strike Rate is a term used to quantify, in terms of frequency, the amount a system, tipster or bettor wins. Here’s everything you need to know what the Strike …
What Stats Won’t Tell You About Football – Limitations of Statistics
Are you trying to predict football matches? It’s pretty hard, right? Analysing statistics is a great starting point. But football, more so than most other sports, has so many different …
How Data Science Affects Sports Betting | Bookmaker & Player Perspectives
Casual sports bettors enjoy the heightened level of excitement that comes with placing wagers on their favourite sporting events. But what chance of success do they really have? What statistical …
The Impact of Weather On Horse Racing & The Going
Extreme weather heavily impacts the going. It complicates — and potentially ruins — racedays for everyone involved. Yet in less extreme cases the weather may prove to be a useful …
The Paramount Importance Of Sample Size In Betting Analysis
Sample size, in a sports betting context, refers to the amount of data items you base your analyses around. Short-term results from a small (and insignificant) sample do not say …
How To Find The Luckiest Teams In Professional Football
Luck plays a huge part in sport. But there’s only so far good fortune will carry a football team over the long-run. In time, weak teams will be found out …
Analyse Your Betting Results With Betting.com (Formerly Bettingmetrics)
I’ve written several posts that encourage readers to analyse past data in order to identify trends (see football prediction models). Data analysis is, of course, a fundamental skill if you’re looking …