While all goals in football are worth an equal amount (1), the likelihood of an attempt being scored varies enormously. Therefore basic high-level statistics such as ‘shots on target’ provide …
Extreme weather heavily impacts the going. It complicates — and potentially ruins — racedays for everyone involved. Yet in less extreme cases the weather may prove to be a useful …
Sample size, in a sports betting context, refers to the amount of data items you base your analyses around. Short-term results from a small (and insignificant) sample do not say …
In search of an edge in their bets, horse racing bettors analyse data more than ever before . Horse racing pioneered the use of historical data analysis as a basis …
If you were to take a look at the DraftKings NBA betting you’d have to scroll some way down to find the Charlotte Hornets in the NBA Championship odds. Is …
The 2020 Masters getting postponed until November turned out to be a blessing in disguise for golf fans. Just a few months later, and the world is about to descend …
There aren’t many approaches to gambling that’ll generate consistent profits over the long-term. In this beginner’s article I’ll run through some of the basic principles behind sports and casino strategies …
It’s just a matter of days until the 2021 Cheltenham Festival (16th-19th March) gets underway. And even though there won’t be any fans in attendance to deliver the famous “Cheltenham …
Sports predictions serve so many purposes. First and foremost, they are discussion points. Fans use them to spur debates. Analysts use them to drive up interest and monetize those debates. …
I recently contributed an answer to the Trademate Sports ‘Industry Experts’ blog series for the question: how can I determine whether my betting results were based on luck or skill? …
Trying to devise your own profitable betting strategy? It’s highly challenging, time consuming — and there’s a distinct lack of resources to guide you. So there’s many wrong turns you’re …
Luck plays a huge part in sport. But there’s only so far good fortune will carry a football team over the long-run. In time, weak teams will be found out …
I’ve written several posts that encourage readers to analyse past data in order to identify trends (see football prediction models). Data analysis is, of course, a fundamental skill if you’re looking …
I’ve had plenty of time over the summer to reflect on last season and form my predictions for the new 2017/18 Premier League season. In this post I’ll firstly recap …
It’s worth analysing the previous season as it gives an indication as to how the current one is likely to play out. Let’s focus on the top end of the …
In previous posts I mentioned that you can download basic football stats from Football-Data.co.uk. However, this data doesn’t include much detail in terms of match analysis. In other words, it doesn’t …
I placed an equal £5 stake on 270 Premier League fixtures and monitored my results. I didn’t analyse the games for a mathematical edge, and I didn’t use any trading techniques. I …
Want to learn more about professional sports betting? Looking for a source of inspiration? Well you could firstly read my posts from the Professional Betting section of this site… Alternatively, try …
The Weight of Money (WoM) is represented by a percentage value and shows when the market is “balanced” or “unbalanced”. It’s used by Betfair traders to predict whether the odds …
In sports betting there’s a genuine buzz that comes from “getting it right” — especially when you correctly predict something against the odds. This often manifests itself in a winning …
One of the biggest problems in gambling is that people convince themselves that their winning streaks were more than just pure chance. But it’s not about what you’ve made before, or …
Are you trying to accurately predict football matches? It’s pretty hard, right? In my post ‘The Basics Of Creating A Football Prediction Betting Model‘ I described various data-crunching methods I’d applied …
Many mathematical methods can be used to create football prediction models. I’ve no doubt that you could spend years perfecting a ‘betting system’. But take it from me: applying statistics to sports betting is not …
Expected Value (EV) is a measure of how much a bettor should expect to win or lose per bet (or collection of bets) placed on the same odds time and …
Horse Racing bettors often take a huge interest in the pedigree of horses as this can provide an insight to likely race winners. The “thoroughbred” is a breed best known …
