The ‘Strike Rate’ is a term used to quantify, in terms of frequency, the amount a system, tipster or bettor wins.
Here’s everything you need to know about Strike Rates and the impact it has on your betting profitability.
Article Contents
What Is The Strike Rate?
The Strike Rate — also known as ‘Win Rate’ or ‘Hit Rate’ — is expressed as a percentage and is used to measure the number of winning bets in a sample. For example:
- If you place 100 bets and 25 of them win, your strike rate is 25%.
- If you place 10 bets and 5 of them win, your Strike rate is 50%.
The only way to determine an accurate Strike Rate is by collecting more data. Once you have a substantial record of bets, you can measure the percentage of winners.
A ‘Good’ Strike Rate
It’s a common misconception that a high strike rate automatically makes a betting system/strategy ‘good’. Strike Rates are relative to the price range you target, and can only be assessed accordingly.
For instance, if you consistently target outcomes at around…
- 2.0 decimal odds, then you’d expect your Strike Rate to be around 50%. You would therefore determine that anything below 50% is ‘bad’ and anything above it is ‘good’.
- 10.0 decimal odds, then you’d expect your Strike Rate to be around 10%. You would therefore determine that anything below 10% is ‘bad’ and anything above it is ‘good’.
Importantly, you want your Strike Rate to consistently out-perform the implied chance of an event occurring. Let’s talk more on this.
The Real-Life Chance
Every outcome has a real-life chance, or probability, of occurring. Betting odds approximate that chance with differing levels of accuracy.
For example, if the real-life probability of a an underdog team beating a favourite is 20%, then the correct odds would be 5.0 decimal odds (because 1 / 20% = 5.0). But it’s important to note that:
- Bookmakers form odds that overestimate the chance of an event occurring by lowering their prices. Those 5.0 ‘correct’ odds are more likely to be 4.0 or 4.5.
- Betting exchanges form odds that more accurately estimate the chance of an event occurring. These odds are said to be “sharp“.
Therefore, if you have nothing else to go by, the Betfair odds are a good estimator of the fair price (in liquid markets, especially), and the real-life chance of something happening.
So how does the real life chance relate to Strike Rates?
Well, in sports betting it’s vitally important to accurately predict the real-life chance of something happening — because that’s where the true Strike Rate will inevitably settle. So if you consistently bet on events with a 75% actual chance of winning, then that’s what your Strike Rate will inevitably end up at as you gather more data. As a sports bettor, there’s nothing you can do to change that.
However, what you can do is use your knowledge of the real-life chance to finds odds that will give you an edge over the long term. This is essentially value betting — the key to successful sports betting.
The Importance of Collecting a Large Data Set
The only way to determine a Strike Rate is to gather data and a record the win % of a selection method or strategy. It’s as simple as that.
A Strike Rate can be produced from a very small set of data — but it’s important to remember that this sample may not be representative of typical performance. Therefore Strike rate estimations will only become meaningful once you’ve collected a substantial set of data points — hundreds, ideally thousands, of bets.
The overall problem with producing a Strike Rate on a small sample size is that it’s easily impacted by variance.
The Impact of Variance
Swings in sports betting results can be described as “variance” in the results. Variance increases when you use high odds, and decreases with lower odds.
So if, for example, your average odds implied a 50% chance of winning (2.0 decimal odds), then you would expect more predictability in the results than you would than if there was an implied 20% chance of winning each bet (5.0 decimal odds). In the latter case, the Strike Rate is more likely to be skewed due to the higher odds.
You also have to consider streaks in results. We refer to it as good and bad luck, and it’s completely natural from a mathematical standpoint. Those good and bad spells will have a huge impact to the Strike Rate if the sample is too small.
Lastly, a small sample runs the risk of producing a Strike Rate that masks the over-achievement from a set of minus EV bets. Or, on the other hand, hides the under-achievement from a set of plus EV value bets. These cases would, again, lead to false conclusions about a strategy’s profitability.
Variance is one major reason why a tipster’s Strike Rate (and ROI) should be taken with a pinch of salt until there’s a substantial set of verified bets to judge them by.
Standard Deviation — A Step Further
To accurately assess whether you have an edge in your bets, you need an appropriate metric to determine if your results are genuinely “fair.” This is where standard deviation comes in
The standard deviation is a number used to tell how measurements for a group are spread out from the average (mean), or expected value. A low standard deviation means that most of the numbers are very close to the average. A high standard deviation means that the numbers are spread out.
For sports betting, you can compare the expected chance (using your own % calculations) against the measurements (the actual hit rate). What you hope for is a fairly low standard deviation.
I’m no maths teacher, so I won’t show you step-by-step instructions of how to work out the standard deviation! There’s countless tutorials and calculators online. This concept is not unique to sports betting by any means.
Strike Rates: The Important Takeaway
In any betting strategy the Strike Rate itself is meaningless unless the odds represent value.
So if you’re someone that only ever bets on extremely strong favourites at average odds of 1.1, your Strike Rate will be very high — because these odds have an implied 90.9% chance of winning. But ultimately there’s no gain if those odds aren’t high enough to generate a positive ROI over the long-term.
Similarly, betting on only high odds — let’s say 200.0 — would be guaranteed to produce an extremely low Strike Rate given the implied 0.5% chance of winning. Yet if those odds are well-priced, the strategy should still be profitable long term, albeit very high risk!
Whether you have a low or a high Strike Rate, the odds you take are everything. Strike Rates only reveal the observed win rate; not the profitability of a betting strategy.
Finding Value Is Key
Refining your bet selection method is the most important aspect of your strategy. This should be your focus.
You have to gauge the real probability of an event happening in order to identify “plus ev” value bets in the market, and avoid taking fair or “minus ev” odds (which will not turn you a profit in the long run).
To improve your Strike Rate I recommend checking out:
- Best Betfair Trading Software | Betting Exchange Tools & Apps 2024 - July 26, 2024
- 5 Essential Tools Every Sports Bettor Should Be Using - July 24, 2024
- Best Gambling Payment Methods | Top Deposit & Withdrawal Options 2024 - July 24, 2024
Yeah, strike rate is commonly used as a way to sell a “betting system”. Creates the perception that you’ll be frequently “winning”. It means squat if you aren’t getting paid out enough on those wins.
Exactly. The example I often give is backing Real Madrid every match. You’d have a great strike rate but a terrible ROI!