Dutching is a betting strategy that involves placing bets on multiple selections in the same market to ensure an equal profit is made from any of the chosen selections. The idea is to stake a different amount on each selection so that, no matter which one wins, the payout is the same. This approach is often used in horse racing, but it can be applied to any sport or event with multiple outcomes.
Article Contents
Equal Stake Dutch Bet
In an equal stake Dutch bet the stakes and odds are equal. For instance:
- Bet £20 on Horse A at 4/1
- Bet £20 on Horse B at 4/1
Total stake = £40 (£20 + £20)
If either horse wins, the profit is £60 (£80 win – £20 loss)
Note: equal-stake Dutch bets are only produce the same profit when selections have the same odds. In most situations this will not be the case, and the stakes will need adjusting. See the following section.
Reduced Stake Dutch Bet
In a reduced stake Dutch bet the stakes are adjusted due to the difference in the odds. For instance:
- Bet £7.50 on Horse A at 4/1
- Bet £12.50 on Horse B at 2/1
Total stake = £20 (£7.50 + £12.50)
If Horse A wins, the profit is £17.50 (£30 win – £12.50 loss)
If Horse B wins, the profit is £17.50 (£25 win – £7.50 loss)
Note: the stakes for a reduced-stake Dutch bet can be adjusted according to a target profit or total stake. I’ll get onto these in the following two sections.
Target-Profit Dutch Bet
In a target-profit Dutch bet the stakes are adjusted to achieve a potential target profit.
Two Selections
For instance, if the target profit is £80, the stakes for 2x 5/1 bets would be adjusted to £20 as follows:
- Bet £20 on Horse A at 5/1
- Bet £20 on Horse B at 5/1
Total stake = £40 (£20 + £20)
If either horse wins, the profit reaches the £80 target (£100 win – £20 loss)
Note: This same principle applies to selections with different odds, as per the above “Reduced-stake” example. The only difference is that a target profit is set.
Three Selections
For instance, if the target profit is £25, the stakes for the following 3 bets are adjusted as follows:
Target profit = £25
- Bet £62.50 on Horse A at 1/1
- Bet £25.00 on Horse B at 4/1
- Bet £12.50 on Horse C at 9/1
Total stake = £100 (£62.50 + £25.00 + £12.50)
If any horse wins, the profit is £25.
If Horse A wins then the result is: £62.50 win – £25 loss – £12.50 loss = £25.00
If Horse B wins then the result is: £100 win – £62.50 loss – £12.50 loss = £25.00
If Horse C wins then the result is: £112.50 win – £62.50 loss – £25 loss = £25.00
Stake-Limited Dutch Bet
In a stake-limited Dutch bet a total combined stake of a specified amount is bet.
Two Selections
For instance, if the total combined stake is £50, the stakes are adjusted on the two selections according to the odds.
Total stake = £30
- Bet £30 on Horse A at 3/1
- Bet £20 on Horse B at 5/1
Total stake = £50 (£30 + £20)
If Horse A wins, the profit is £70 (£90 win – £20 loss)
If Horse B wins, the profit is £70 (£100 win – £30 loss)
Three Selections
For instance, if the total combined stake is £100, the stakes are adjusted on the three selections according to the odds.
Total stake = £100
- Bet £22.28 on Horse A at 3/1
- Bet £9.90 on Horse B at 8/1
- Bet £17.82 on Horse C at 4/1
Total stake = £100 (£22.28 + £9.90 + £17.82)
If Horse A wins, the profit is £39.12 (£66.84 win – £27.72 loss)
If Horse B wins, the profit is £39.10 (£79.20 win – £22.28 loss – £17.82 loss)
If Horse C wins, the profit is £39.1 (£71.28 win – £32.18 loss)
Pros & Cons Of Dutch Betting
While the Dutching can be useful in certain situations, it also has its drawbacks. Here are some of the pros and cons of Dutch betting:
Pros
- Risk Management: Dutch betting helps to manage risk by spreading your bets across different outcomes. This reduces the likelihood of losing all your money on a single bet.
- Profit Maximisation: Dutch betting allows you to maximise your profits by betting on multiple outcomes. If one of your bets wins, you will still make a profit.
- Flexibility: Dutch betting allows you to choose how much you want to bet on each outcome, giving you greater control over your potential winnings and losses.
Cons
- Lower Potential Winnings: While Dutch betting reduces your risk, it also reduces your potential winnings. This is because you are spreading your bets across multiple outcomes, which means that you will not win as much if one of your bets is successful.
- Requires Accurate Predictions: To successfully Dutch bet, you need to accurately predict the probabilities of different outcomes. If you are not able to do this, you may end up losing money.
- Time-Consuming: Dutch betting involves placing multiple bets on different outcomes, which can be time-consuming. This can be particularly challenging if you are betting on a large number of events.
How To Calculate Stakes For Dutch Bets
Dutching enables bettors to make the same amount of profit if any of their selections is a winner. However, with different odds involved it can be tricky to work out the correct stake sizes.
I recommend converting odds to decimal format if you plan to make calculations, otherwise it can become very confusing with all the fractions involved!
Here’s some examples of how you can manually calculate the correct stakes for your Dutch bet without using a online Dutch Bet Calculator.
Example 1
Let’s suppose you are backing two selections at 6.0 and 9.0 and you want to profit the same amount whatever the outcome.
A very simple way to do this without involving too many calculations is to assign a target profit value per each individual bet (not overall), such as £100. The stake calculations are divided between the selections as follows:
£100 / 6.0 = 16.67% = £16.67 £100 / 9.0 = 11.11% = £11.11 Total stake = £27.78
- The stakes are £16.67 @ 6.0 and £11.11 @ 9.0.
- If either of the bets win, an equal profit of ~£72.24 is made.
- You stand to lose £27.28 if both bets lose.
Note: In this simplified method, you can raise or lower the per bet profit target to a value that you see fit.
Example 2
Now let’s take the same odds from the previous example, and instead specify the exact overall profit amount required for both bets as £50.
The following calculations are required in order to determine two unknowns A and B, which represent the two different stakes for the Dutch bet:
Expressions for the profit of either bet winning:
(6.0 - 1)A - B = £50
(9.0 - 1)B - A = £50
Therefore,
5.0A - B = 8.0B - A
6.0A = 9.0B
A = (9/6)B = (3/2)B
This expression can be substituted into the initial formulas as follows:
((5.0) x (3/2)B) - B = £50 6.5B = £50 B = £7.69 (8.0 x 7.69) - A = £50 61.52 - A = £50 A = £11.52
- The stakes are £7.69 @ 6.0 and £11.52 @ 9.0.
- If either of the bets win, an equal profit of £50 is made.
- You stand to lose £19.23 if both bets lose.
Example 3
Now let’s take the same odds from the previous examples, but this time set the total risk to £20.
The following calculations are required in order to determine A and B, which represent the stakes required to distribute a £20 stake across the two outcomes as follows.
Calculate the ratio of the two odds: R = 9.0 / 6.0 = 1.5 This means the stake @ 6.0 must be 1.5 times bigger than the stake @ 9.0. Therefore: 1.5B + B = £20 B(1.5 + 1) = £20 2.5B = £20 B = 20 / 2.5 = £8.00 Therefore, A = £20 - £8 = £12
- The stakes are £12.00 @ 6.0 and £8.00 @ 9.0.
- If either of the bets win, an equal profit of £52 is made.
- You stand to lose £20 if both bets lose.
Dutch Arbitrage Bets
A Dutch Arbitrage occurs when a bettor is able to produce an overround of less than 100% from the selections taken, thereby guaranteeing a profit.
Example
Suppose you have a tennis match between Player A and Player B.
- The odds at Bookmaker 1 for Player A are 1.5. This implies a 66.67% chance.
- The odds at Bookmaker 2 for Player B are 3.5 This implies a 28.57% chance.
What you have is a case where the total overround calculates as: 66.67 + 28.57 = 95.24%. This means that these 2 particular Bookies aren’t aligned, and the bettor can achieve +4.76% ROI from this Dutch.
The easiest way to illustrate the +4.76% advantage is to create an equal risk Dutch, as I showed earlier in this post. For simplicity, I’ll use a £100 individual bet profit again:
£100 / 1.5 = 66.67% = £66.67 £100 / 3.5 = 28.57% = £28.57 Total stake = £95.24
Player1 Wins
(£66.67 x 1.5) - £66.67 - £28.57 = +£4.76 profit
Player 2 Wins
(28.57 x 3.5) - £28.57 - £66.67 = +£4.76 profit
There you have it: the 4.76% ROI for either outcome!
Note: in this simplified case, there are only two outcomes to consider. In horse races many runners, additional calculations are required. Nevertheless, the fundamental principles of earning a profit by exploiting the overround remains applicable regardless of the number of outcomes involved.
Why Do Arbitrage Dutches Occur?
Arbitrage Dutches occur when one or more bookmakers are misaligned in their pricing.
Suppose that in our example Bookmaker2 spotted their incorrect pricing and reduced the odds down to 2.5. Instead we would have an overround of 66.67 + 40.00 = 106.67%. This creates a bookmaker edge of 6.67%, and therefore negative value for the player to back both outcomes. This is the usual case.
Learn how bookmakers make money using an overround.
How Can I Find Dutch Arbitrage Bets?
All of the arbitrage finders I recommend on this site offer risk-free Dutches as part of their service.
Furthermore, you won’t ever have to do any of these calculations because the software works it all out for you!
Discover the best sports arbing/sure bet software.
Final Points
To conclude this article on Dutch betting, there are some key points to take away.
- You can Dutch any number of selections in the same sporting event, producing an equal profit for a winner, or an equal total stake, depending on your preference.
- Dutching fewer selections carries more risk than Dutching several outcomes.
- More outcomes lowers the variance (profit swings), but also reduces the potential profit per win.
- Less outcomes raises the variance (profit swings), but also increases the potential profit per win.
- Dutching is ideal for events where you have narrowed the possibilities down to 2-3 likely outcomes. But to gain a long-term advantage from Dutching, the odds taken must represent value.
- For a Dutch to guarantee a profit, all outcomes must be covered, producing overround of less than 100%.
- Note that “Reverse Dutching” is the same as regular Dutching, except with Lay bets on the betting exchange. All of the above principles apply, only your liability is reduced by every new bet you add to your Dutch.
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