Betting Bankroll Management & Staking Plans Guide

Posted on by Toby @ Punter2Pro

Effective bankroll management is a crucial aspect of successful sports betting. It involves allocating a specific amount of funds solely for placing wagers, determining the appropriate size of each bet, and closely monitoring your wins and losses.

In this article, I’ll discuss why bankroll management matters and share essential tips to help you manage your bank effectively. I’ll also cover several staking plans so you can choose the right approach for your strategy.

 

What Is Bankroll Management?

Bankroll management is the process of managing your money when betting on sports. It involves setting aside funds, determining your bet size, and tracking wins and losses.

The main objective is to safeguard your betting bank and ensure its longevity, enabling you to keep betting with confidence and discipline. By applying sound bankroll techniques, you can mitigate the risk of catastrophic losses and increase your chances of long-term profitability.

 

Why Is Bankroll Management Important?

Bankroll management is crucial in sports betting for several reasons.

  1. It helps you avoid losing all your money in a single bet or over a short period.
  2. It encourages discipline and helps you avoid chasing losses — a common mistake among bettors.
  3. It promotes rational, informed decisions rather than emotional or “gut-feel” bets.

Another key reason is variance.

In sports betting, variance refers to the inherent randomness and unpredictability of events. Even the most knowledgeable bettors can’t predict outcomes with 100 % certainty. So, even with good decisions, you can still face extended losing spells.

Proper bankroll management helps to minimise the impact of variance. By ring-fencing a set amount for betting and sizing your stakes appropriately, you give your bank the best chance to survive losing streaks without being wiped out.

 

Basic Tips For Bankroll Management

Effective bankroll management is a critical component of successful sports betting, as it reduces financial risk. Here are some essential tips to help you manage your bank wisely:

  • Set a budget: Decide how much you can afford to lose and set that aside as your bankroll. Never bet with money you can’t afford to lose.
  • Track your bets: It’s essential to track results, monitor your strike rate, and adjust your strategy accordingly. Record each bet — date, sport, event, bet type, unit size, and outcome.
  • Avoid chasing losses: Chasing losses is a common mistake. Stick to your unit size and strategy; accept that losses are part of betting.
  • Bet with value: Look for prices where the odds exceed the true probability. Learn more about value bets.
  • Be selective: Only place wagers when you have a strong edge. Over-betting increases exposure and risk.
  • Take breaks: Betting can be addictive. Step away when emotional or distracted to keep decisions rational.

Next I’ll discuss the most important aspect of bankroll management: staking plans.

 

Staking Plans For Betting

A staking plan is a strategy for determining how much to place on each bet relative to the size of your bank.

In this section I cover four types of staking plans: level risk, martingale, loss recovery, and percentage of bank.

1. Level Risk (Good)

A level-risk approach means using a fixed stake or “unit” per bet. For instance, I used a £5 level stake throughout my Mug Betting Experiment.

It’s crucial to note that any selection method or strategy that doesn’t profit to level stakes won’t succeed under any staking plan. Fundamentally, a profitable strategy needs a positive “+EV” edge.

There are two ways to apply “level risk”:

  1. Level stake. Risk the same amount per bet regardless of the odds. At 2.5 or 10.0, you’d stake the same. For Lay bets, calculate the correct risk (liability) per bet.
  2. Level risk. Determine the stake from the odds so that the potential profit is constant. Higher stakes at low odds, lower stakes at high odds — producing the same profit from any win.

Option (2) is generally better for bankroll management: it allows more opportunities at higher odds (where win probability is lower) while reducing variance and smoothing the profit-and-loss line compared with method (1). It also makes future performance easier to project.

Despite the different paths, the final outcome of both methods (1) and (2) is often similar.

2. Percentage of Bank (Good)

The Percentage-of-Bank plan stakes a fixed percentage of your current bankroll on each bet.

For example, with a £1,000 bank and a 2 % stake, your first bet is £20. If you win, the bank becomes £1,020 and the next stake is 2 % of that (£20.40). If you lose, the bank becomes £980 and the next stake is 2 % of that (£19.60).

This helps manage risk and withstand losing runs, because stakes fall as the bank falls and rise as it grows.

To illustrate, suppose your bank is £1,000 and you bet 5 % per selection. After several losses:

  • Lose £50 @ 2.5 odds (Total loss = £50, Bank = £950)
  • Lose £47.5 @ 3.0 odds (Total loss = £97.5, Bank = £902.5)
  • Lose £45.13 @ 2.5 odds (Total loss = £142.63, Bank = £857.37)
  • Lose £42.87 @ 4.0 odds (Total loss = £185.5, Bank = £814.5)

The next stake is 5 % × 814.5 = £40.73 — already lower than the original £50.

An alternative is to start with a level stake (e.g., £50) until the bank exceeds its starting balance, then switch to a percentage-of-bank rule. Just note there’s no guarantee your bank will reach that threshold, so plan for both success and setbacks.

Overall, Percentage of Bank is a conservative, disciplined approach to bankroll management.

3. Kelly Criterion (Good In Theory)

The Kelly Criterion suggests staking a percentage of the bank based on your perceived edge, aiming to maximise long-term growth while minimising risk of ruin.

Kelly calculates the optimal percentage from the win probability and the odds:

The Kelly Criterion formula: (BP - Q) / B

  • B = Decimal odds − 1
  • P = probability of success
  • Q = probability of failure (i.e. 1 − P)

The result is the fraction of your bankroll to stake. If the formula outputs 5 % and your bank is £1,000, the stake is £50.

Example: Team A at 2.0, with a true win chance of 52 %. The 2.0 price implies 50 %, so this is positive value. Learn more about implied probability.

In this scenario:

P = 0.52
Q = 1 − 0.52 = 0.48
B = 2.0 − 1 = 1

This yields: (0.52 × 1 − 0.48) / 1 = 0.04

Therefore, Kelly recommends staking 4 % of the bank.

Kelly’s advantage is that it scales stakes with edge, helping avoid over-staking low-probability/high-reward bets and under-staking high-probability/low-reward bets.

Drawbacks: it assumes your edge and probabilities are known and accurate (often they aren’t), and it can be complex to calculate and apply in practice.

4. Loss Recovery (Bad)

Loss recovery (also called “target profit” or “chasing losses”) adds previous losses to a profit target. After a loss, you increase the next stake to recoup losses and hit the target; after a win, you reset to the original stake.

Example: Start with £10. Lose your first bet (−£10). Rather than staking £10 again, you stake £20 to recover £10 and win £10 profit. If you lose again, stakes rise further, compounding risk.

Consider a £20 profit target across a sequence of losses at varying odds:

  1. Lose £13.33 @ 2.5 odds (Total loss = £13.33)
  2. Lose £16.66 @ 3.0 odds (Total loss = £30)
  3. Lose £33.33 @ 2.5 odds (Total loss = £63.33)
  4. Lose £27.77 @ 4.0 odds (Total loss = £91.11)
  5. Lose £74.07 @ 2.5 odds (Total loss = £165.18)
  6. Lose £52.91 @ 4.5 odds (Total loss = £218.09)
  7. Lose £238.09 @ 2.0 odds (Total loss = £456.19)

If the next odds are 3.0, you must stake £238.09 — with an existing loss of £456.19 — just to achieve a £20 profit.

Increasing the odds can reduce the stake needed to hit the target, but it also reduces your win probability each time. Overall, this plan is not recommended for long-term success.

5. Martingale (Disastrous)

Martingale doubles the stake after each loss to recover previous losses and make a small profit, typically on even-money bets (~50 % win chance).

Example: Start with £10 on Tottenham to beat Arsenal. Lose? Stake £20 next time. Lose again? Stake £40, and so on, until a win — then reset to £10.

It seems simple, but it effectively requires an infinite bank and a bookmaker willing to accept enormous stakes.

Suppose you bet at 2.0 (even money) with £20 initial stakes and lose seven times before winning on the eighth bet. Your losses before the 8th bet:

  1. Lose £20 (Total loss = £20)
  2. Lose £40 (Total loss = £60)
  3. Lose £80 (Total loss = £140)
  4. Lose £160 (Total loss = £300)
  5. Lose £320 (Total loss = £620)
  6. Lose £640 (Total loss = £1,260)
  7. Lose £1,280 (Total loss = £2,540)

For the eighth bet, you’d need to stake £2,560 — after already losing £2,540 — to make just £20 overall.

Losing streaks like this are common. Martingale can lead to rapid ruin and should be avoided.

 

Limitations Of Staking Plans

Staking plans aren’t foolproof. They can fail in practice for several reasons:

  • Bookmaker stake limits. If a bookie restricts your account or caps maximum stakes on a selection, you may be unable to follow the plan rigidly.
  • Betfair liquidity. Exchanges like Betfair can help, but liquidity varies; you won’t always get matched at the odds or size you want.
  • Loss of potential profit. Some plans recommend smaller stakes to reduce risk and smooth growth, but that can also mean under-staking value and leaving profit on the table.
  • Complexity. Constantly consulting a spreadsheet for exact stakes adds friction. In professional betting, speed matters — specialist Betfair trading software can automate parts of this.

Lastly, remember: staking plans only work when applied to bets with an edge. Without an edge, no staking plan will “save the day.” Build a solid strategy first, then apply the plan.

Toby @ Punter2Pro
Latest posts by Toby @ Punter2Pro (see all)