- The Fickle Football Fan Formula ran from 2021/22 to 2024/25, generating bet selections based on fan sentiment. It tested whether markets become biased by recent results — reflecting how “fickle” supporters can be. Learn more.
All Time Results
Performance Stats
| Losers | 328 |
| Winners | 367 |
| Average odds | 2.61 |
| Implied Win Rate | 50.59% |
| Actual Win Rate | 52.81% |
| ROI (2% Commission) | 4.82% |
Season Results
2021/22
| Losers | 94 |
| Winners | 93 |
| Average odds | 2.56 |
| Implied Win Rate | 50.05% |
| Actual Win Rate | 49.73% |
| ROI (2% Commission) | 2.57% |
2022/23
| Losers | 60 |
| Winners | 71 |
| Average odds | 2.88 |
| Implied Win Rate | 52.72% |
| Actual Win Rate | 54.20% |
| ROI (2% Commission) | 2.52% |
2023/24
| Losers | 86 |
| Winners | 99 |
| Average odds | 2.61 |
| Implied Win Rate | 50.21% |
| Actual Win Rate | 53.51% |
| ROI (2% Commission) | 7.64% |
2024/25
| Losers | 88 |
| Winners | 104 |
| Average odds | 2.49 |
| Implied Win Rate | 50.05% |
| Actual Win Rate | 54.17% |
| ROI (2% Commission) | 6.16% |
Conclusion
The results of the Fickle Football Fan Formula suggest there may be real weight behind the theory that fan sentiment is heavily swayed by recent results, and can distort betting markets.
Across four seasons it placed nearly 700 bets and returned a 4.82% ROI after commission — an impressive outcome given how efficient Premier League markets are thought to be. The strike rate of 52.81% also exceeded the 50.59% implied win rate, showing that betting against short-term fan sentiment did appear to uncover an edge.
Of course, this doesn’t prove the model is flawless — but the fact it held up across multiple seasons indicates that recency bias among football fans might genuinely ripple through the odds markets.
For further analysis, check out: Proof That Football Fans Are Extremely Fickle
Best Site for Placing Lay Bets
Matchbook is a leading betting exchange known for its low commission rates and competitive odds. It was also the platform used for all bets in this experiment, making it the ideal choice for lay betting.
Total bets: 317
ROI: +5.51%
Tips For Upcoming Games
FFFF detects when recent results could exaggerate the odds for upcoming fixtures, and recommends bets accordingly.
NOTE: The 2023/24 season is complete, so there will be no more activity until the new season commences.
 Fulham | V 11th May 12:30 |  Manchester City |
   | RECENT RESULTS |   |
| 49% | OPTIMISMHow optimistic fans feel in general, based on recent results and performances. This accounts for club expectations (which is regularly redefined). | 86% |
| 62% | CONCERNHow concerned fans feel about the convincingness of recent performances. Goal margins are a key contributor. | 5% |
| 28% | SHOCKHow surprised fans feel about recent results. Upsets lead to a higher score - but that can be positive or negative. | 27% |
| Neither here nor there | SENTIMENTA summary of how fans feel about their club at this moment. Look out for how sentiment changes over just a few games! | Extremely optimistic, relaxed |
| None | TIPFickle Football Fan Formula selects bets when there's a significant difference in the recent sentiment surrounding two clubs - which could have too much baring on current prices. | Lay |
 Everton | V 11th May 15:00 |  Sheffield United |
| RECENT RESULTS | |
| 67% | OPTIMISMHow optimistic fans feel in general, based on recent results and performances. This accounts for club expectations (which is regularly redefined). | 16% |
| 32% | CONCERNHow concerned fans feel about the convincingness of recent performances. Goal margins are a key contributor. | 90% |
| 29% | SHOCKHow surprised fans feel about recent results. Upsets lead to a higher score - but that can be positive or negative. | 23% |
| Satisfied, quietly positive | SENTIMENTA summary of how fans feel about their club at this moment. Look out for how sentiment changes over just a few games! | Hopeless, stressed |
| Lay | TIPFickle Football Fan Formula selects bets when there's a significant difference in the recent sentiment surrounding two clubs - which could have too much baring on current prices. | None |
 West Ham | V 11th May 15:00 |  Luton |
| RECENT RESULTS | |
| 20% | OPTIMISMHow optimistic fans feel in general, based on recent results and performances. This accounts for club expectations (which is regularly redefined). | 43% |
| 82% | CONCERNHow concerned fans feel about the convincingness of recent performances. Goal margins are a key contributor. | 73% |
| 50% | SHOCKHow surprised fans feel about recent results. Upsets lead to a higher score - but that can be positive or negative. | 34% |
| Highly concerned, losing hope | SENTIMENTA summary of how fans feel about their club at this moment. Look out for how sentiment changes over just a few games! | Faint disappointment, mixed emotions |
| None | TIPFickle Football Fan Formula selects bets when there's a significant difference in the recent sentiment surrounding two clubs - which could have too much baring on current prices. | Lay |
 Bournemouth | V 11th May 15:00 |  Brentford |
| RECENT RESULTS | |
| 42% | OPTIMISMHow optimistic fans feel in general, based on recent results and performances. This accounts for club expectations (which is regularly redefined). | 53% |
| 43% | CONCERNHow concerned fans feel about the convincingness of recent performances. Goal margins are a key contributor. | 40% |
| 42% | SHOCKHow surprised fans feel about recent results. Upsets lead to a higher score - but that can be positive or negative. | 28% |
| Slightly doubtful | SENTIMENTA summary of how fans feel about their club at this moment. Look out for how sentiment changes over just a few games! | Faint positivity, mixed emotions |
| None | TIPFickle Football Fan Formula selects bets when there's a significant difference in the recent sentiment surrounding two clubs - which could have too much baring on current prices. | None |
 Wolves | V 11th May 15:00 |  Crystal Palace |
| RECENT RESULTS | |
| 29% | OPTIMISMHow optimistic fans feel in general, based on recent results and performances. This accounts for club expectations (which is regularly redefined). | 70% |
| 67% | CONCERNHow concerned fans feel about the convincingness of recent performances. Goal margins are a key contributor. | 23% |
| 52% | SHOCKHow surprised fans feel about recent results. Upsets lead to a higher score - but that can be positive or negative. | 31% |
| Losing confidence | SENTIMENTA summary of how fans feel about their club at this moment. Look out for how sentiment changes over just a few games! | Gaining confidence |
| None | TIPFickle Football Fan Formula selects bets when there's a significant difference in the recent sentiment surrounding two clubs - which could have too much baring on current prices. | Lay |
 Tottenham | V 11th May 15:00 |  Burnley |
| RECENT RESULTS | |
| 15% | OPTIMISMHow optimistic fans feel in general, based on recent results and performances. This accounts for club expectations (which is regularly redefined). | 35% |
| 80% | CONCERNHow concerned fans feel about the convincingness of recent performances. Goal margins are a key contributor. | 50% |
| 47% | SHOCKHow surprised fans feel about recent results. Upsets lead to a higher score - but that can be positive or negative. | 35% |
| Hopeless, stressed | SENTIMENTA summary of how fans feel about their club at this moment. Look out for how sentiment changes over just a few games! | Dissatisfied, slightly negative |
| None | TIPFickle Football Fan Formula selects bets when there's a significant difference in the recent sentiment surrounding two clubs - which could have too much baring on current prices. | None |
 Newcastle | V 11th May 15:00 |  Brighton |
| RECENT RESULTS | |
| 77% | OPTIMISMHow optimistic fans feel in general, based on recent results and performances. This accounts for club expectations (which is regularly redefined). | 56% |
| 30% | CONCERNHow concerned fans feel about the convincingness of recent performances. Goal margins are a key contributor. | 75% |
| 28% | SHOCKHow surprised fans feel about recent results. Upsets lead to a higher score - but that can be positive or negative. | 63% |
| Upbeat, positive | SENTIMENTA summary of how fans feel about their club at this moment. Look out for how sentiment changes over just a few games! | Faint positivity, mixed emotions |
| Lay | TIPFickle Football Fan Formula selects bets when there's a significant difference in the recent sentiment surrounding two clubs - which could have too much baring on current prices. | None |
 Nottingham Forest | V 11th May 17:30 |  Chelsea |
| RECENT RESULTS | |
| 60% | OPTIMISMHow optimistic fans feel in general, based on recent results and performances. This accounts for club expectations (which is regularly redefined). | 85% |
| 62% | CONCERNHow concerned fans feel about the convincingness of recent performances. Goal margins are a key contributor. | 22% |
| 63% | SHOCKHow surprised fans feel about recent results. Upsets lead to a higher score - but that can be positive or negative. | 58% |
| Slightly hopeful | SENTIMENTA summary of how fans feel about their club at this moment. Look out for how sentiment changes over just a few games! | Extremely optimistic, relaxed |
| None | TIPFickle Football Fan Formula selects bets when there's a significant difference in the recent sentiment surrounding two clubs - which could have too much baring on current prices. | Lay |
 Manchester United | V 12th May 16:30 |  Arsenal |
| RECENT RESULTS | |
| 61% | OPTIMISMHow optimistic fans feel in general, based on recent results and performances. This accounts for club expectations (which is regularly redefined). | 85% |
| 38% | CONCERNHow concerned fans feel about the convincingness of recent performances. Goal margins are a key contributor. | 12% |
| 13% | SHOCKHow surprised fans feel about recent results. Upsets lead to a higher score - but that can be positive or negative. | 35% |
| Slightly hopeful | SENTIMENTA summary of how fans feel about their club at this moment. Look out for how sentiment changes over just a few games! | Extremely optimistic, relaxed |
| None | TIPFickle Football Fan Formula selects bets when there's a significant difference in the recent sentiment surrounding two clubs - which could have too much baring on current prices. | Lay |
 Aston Villa | V 13th May 20:00 |  Liverpool |
| RECENT RESULTS | |
| 32% | OPTIMISMHow optimistic fans feel in general, based on recent results and performances. This accounts for club expectations (which is regularly redefined). | 65% |
| 45% | CONCERNHow concerned fans feel about the convincingness of recent performances. Goal margins are a key contributor. | 50% |
| 67% | SHOCKHow surprised fans feel about recent results. Upsets lead to a higher score - but that can be positive or negative. | 33% |
| Losing confidence | SENTIMENTA summary of how fans feel about their club at this moment. Look out for how sentiment changes over just a few games! | Satisfied, quietly positive |
| None | TIPFickle Football Fan Formula selects bets when there's a significant difference in the recent sentiment surrounding two clubs - which could have too much baring on current prices. | Lay |
Fan Sentiment League Table
This following table shows how fans of each club are likely to be feeling going into their next fixture.
NOTE: the 2023/24 season is complete. This is the final fan sentiment table.
| Rank | Club | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Crystal Palace | Extremely optimistic, jubilant |
| 2 | Manchester City | Extremely optimistic, relaxed |
| 3 | Arsenal | Highly optimistic, confident |
| 4 | Chelsea | Highly optimistic, confident |
| 5 | Manchester United | Upbeat, positive |
| 6 | Liverpool | Upbeat, positive |
| 7 | Nottingham Forest | Satisfied, quietly positive |
| 8 | Tottenham | Satisfied, quietly positive |
| 9 | Newcastle | Satisfied, quietly positive |
| 10 | Fulham | Satisfied, quietly positive |
| 11 | Brentford | Dissatisfied, slightly negative |
| 12 | Everton | Dissatisfied, slightly negative |
| 13 | West Ham | Losing confidence |
| 14 | Luton | Highly concerned, losing hope |
| 15 | Brighton | Highly concerned, losing hope |
| 16 | Burnley | Highly concerned, losing hope |
| 17 | Aston Villa | Highly concerned, losing hope |
| 18 | Sheffield United | Highly concerned, losing hope |
| 19 | Bournemouth | Highly concerned, losing hope |
| 20 | Wolves | Hopeless, stressed |
Premier League Table