In the lead-up to February 9th and Super Bowl LIX, you are sure to come across a flurry of betting columns from experts (and amateurs) giving their two cents on the big game. It is a fascinating matchup, although not an easy one to call. The Kansas City Chiefs might seem like a juggernaut in pursuit of a historic “three-peat,” but they have shown vulnerabilities throughout the season. It wouldn’t be a major shock if the Philadelphia Eagles emerged as victors.
The tightness of the game is reflexted in the Super Bowl odds, with the Chiefs only marginal favorites at -130. However, an interesting alternative is the Super Bowl MVP market. Many tipsters suggest avoiding the main win markets in favor of MVP betting, arguing that it can offer better value. Most often, they recommend backing the quarterback of the team you expect to win.
Majority of MVPs Go to Quarterbacks
The logic is simple: Super Bowl MVPs are usually awarded to the quarterback of the winning team.
In the modern era—particularly in the 21st century—this has happened around 75%-80% of the time. Four of the last five MVPs have gone to quarterbacks and six of the last eight. Naturally, the MVP odds are slightly higher than the standard win market. For example, with the Chiefs at -130 for Super Bowl LIX, you can get Patrick Mahomes at +120. For the Eagles, priced at +110 on the moneyline, Jalen Hurts is available at +350.
It’s a tempting proposition, and there’s sound reasoning behind it. However, bettors should be cautious. While quarterbacks have dominated the award, it’s never a certainty. The presence of legendary QBs like Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, and the Manning brothers has reinforced the trend, but each game is different. The odds must justify the risk of betting on an individual award rather than the team outcome.
Barkley Is the Player the Eagles Count On
One player stands out as a potential disruptor to the quarterback MVP trend. Sandwiched between Mahomes and Hurts as the second favorite for the MVP is Saquon Barkley—a dynamic, wonderful player at running back who has been a game-changer for the Eagles. He has arguably been the team’s most important player this season and might have been a serious contender for league MVP if not for the usual quarterback bias.
Barkley is priced at +260, notably shorter than Hurts, highlighting his impact. Historically, running backs have won the Super Bowl MVP seven times, but you have to go back to 1998 (Terrell Davis) to find the last instance. It’s a rare occurrence, but Barkley’s influence on the Eagles’ offense makes him a serious contender.
Other Contenders and Final Thoughts
For those looking beyond the favorites, there are longer odds available on other potential MVP candidates. Players like Travis Kelce, Kareem Hunt, AJ Brown, and Xavier Worthy are all priced at +1500 or higher. While history suggests the award typically goes to quarterbacks or standout skill-position players, a surprise winner isn’t out of the question.
In the end, professional bettors will be weighing the margins in the market before making their picks. This feels like one of those Super Bowls where, in hindsight, both the winning team and MVP will seem obvious. But right now, it remains a very close call.
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