Are you curious about the term ‘Value bet’ or ‘Value betting,’ but aren’t sure what it means or how to use it to your advantage in sports betting?
The concept of value in betting is closely tied to Expected Value (EV) — the long-term profit or loss expected from a particular bet or selection method. Value betting involves identifying opportunities where the odds suggest that a selection is less likely to win than it actually is, creating an edge in favour of the bettor and a positive Expected Value.
In this article, I’ll explain the concept of value betting and Expected Value in simple terms, using easy-to-follow examples to help you understand how to identify and take advantage of value odds for a profitable betting strategy.
Article Contents
What Is Value Betting?
In sports betting, a value bet is one that is more likely to win than the odds suggest.
A value bet can be identified when a bettor believes that the probability of an event occurring is greater than the implied probability of the odds offered by the bookmaker.
For example, if a bookmaker offers odds of 2.00 on a football team to win, those odds imply a 50% chance of success (1/2.00). However, if the bettor believes the team’s actual chance of winning is 60%, this would be viewed as a value betting opportunity, and they would place a bet on the team to win.
Value betting is a fundamental strategy for successful betting, as it allows bettors to generate profits over time by consistently finding opportunities where the odds are in their favour.
Value betting applies to sports betting, poker, and other forms of gambling. In each case, the goal is to produce a positive Expected Value (EV), or player “edge”, over time. In doing so, profit is also expected.
Expected Value (EV) Explained
EV stands for ‘Expected Value’ — a mathematical concept used to determine the average profit or loss of a bet (or series of bets) by accounting for all possible outcomes and their probabilities.
Expected Value (EV) is a key concept in value betting, as it helps bettors identify opportunities where the odds are in their favour. For any bet you place, expected value can be summarised as follows:
- Positive EV or “plus EV”: The bet has a higher probability of winning than the odds suggest.
- Zero EV or “no EV”: The bet has exactly the same probability of winning as the odds suggest.
- Negative EV or “minus EV”: The bet has a lower probability of winning than the odds suggest.
In essence, a value bet is one where the expected value is positive (“plus EV”), meaning the bettor stands to gain more over the long run than they would lose.
Regularly betting on +EV bets would give the bettor an “edge” or “advantage” — both terms mean the same thing.
How to Calculate EV
Expected Value (EV) is calculated by multiplying the real-life probability of an outcome by the potential payout, and then subtracting the probability of losing multiplied by the amount wagered, as follows:
Expected Value = (Decimal win probability × Profit per bet) – (Decimal loss probability × Loss per bet).
I’ll show you how to use this formula with examples.
Example 1: +EV bet
If a bettor places a £100 bet on a team to win at odds of 3.0, believing the team has a 50% chance of winning, the potential payouts would be:
- Win: £300 return (£100 stake + £200 profit)
- Lose: -£100
Expected Value = (0.5 × £200) – (0.5 × £100) = £100 – £50 = £50
In this example, the expected value of the bet is £50, meaning the bettor can expect to make a profit of £50 for every £100 staked over the long run. Therefore, the expected ROI is 50%.
Example 2: 0 EV bet
If a bettor places a £100 bet on a team to win at odds of 2.0, believing the team has a 50% chance of winning, the payouts would be:
- Win: £200 return (£100 stake + £100 profit)
- Lose: -£100
Expected Value = (0.5 × £100) – (0.5 × £100) = £50 – £50 = £0
In this case, the expected value is £0, meaning the bettor would break even over the long run. The expected ROI is 0%.
Example 3: -EV bet
If a bettor places a £100 bet on a team to win at odds of 1.8, believing the team has a 50% chance of winning, the payouts would be:
- Win: £180 return (£100 stake + £80 profit)
- Lose: -£100
Expected Value = (0.5 × £80) – (0.5 × £100) = £40 – £50 = –£10
Here, the expected value of the bet is -£10, meaning the bettor would lose £10 for every £100 staked over the long run. The expected ROI is -10%.
The Importance of the True Win Probability
Without knowing the true win probability of an event, bettors can’t accurately determine fair odds or calculate the expected value (EV) of their bets.
Calculating the fair odds for sports events is extremely challenging — most bettors fail to consistently get it right.
Betfair Exchange odds are considered the most reliable benchmark for determining a fair price, backed by strong mathematical evidence. Typically, the correct price can be found between the Back and Lay odds of a well-formed market, such as the Match Odds for Premier League games. Generally, the true price lies closer to the Back price, although this can vary depending on the market and situation. By comparing bookmaker odds to Betfair Exchange odds, bettors can better assess the value in their bets and spot profitable opportunities.
Learn why betting exchange odds are generally accurate.
Analysing Your Performance
To estimate your potential profitability and determine the expected value (EV) of your betting strategy, you need a large dataset of past betting results. Once you have built a meaningful sample size, you can begin making reliable assertions about your performance.
For example, if your betting strategy has consistently produced a return on investment (ROI) of +5% across a large number of bets, you could reasonably expect that staking £100,000 would yield a £5,000 profit based on historical results.
Similarly, if your average ROI is -5%, you would expect to lose £5,000 for every £100,000 staked going forward.
It’s important to note that bet size does not impact your EV calculation — but it does influence variance. The expected profit or loss remains the same whether you place one £100,000 bet or 50,000 bets of £2. However, the risk of large swings is much higher with fewer, larger bets. For that reason, bankroll management is crucial when assessing profitability and managing long-term risk.
Even if you have a profitable betting strategy, poor bankroll management can wipe out your profits. A common approach is to stake a small, fixed percentage of your bankroll on each bet — for instance, 2% per wager if you have a £10,000 bankroll (resulting in £200 stakes). This helps to protect against heavy losses during inevitable losing streaks.
Another important tool for performance analysis is Closing Line Value (CLV) — the difference between the odds you placed your bet at and the closing odds just before the event starts. Consistently beating the closing line is a strong indicator that you are identifying value, even if short-term results fluctuate. Over time, bettors who beat the closing line tend to be profitable.
Advanced bettors may also apply the Kelly Criterion — a mathematical formula used to calculate the optimal bet size based on your perceived edge and the odds available. The Kelly Criterion maximises expected growth while controlling risk.
Why Do Value Bets Occur?
Value bets occur because bookmakers and betting markets don’t always set odds that perfectly reflect the true probability of an outcome. In other words, bookmakers or betting exchanges sometimes offer odds that are better or worse than the true probability, creating opportunities for value betting.
There are several reasons why bookmakers may not set perfectly efficient odds. These include:
- Public Opinion: Bookmakers can be influenced by public sentiment or media coverage, leading to overpriced or underpriced odds on certain teams or players.
- Early Prices: Bookmakers may initially offer odds designed to attract bets on both sides, rather than to accurately reflect true probabilities, creating early value opportunities.
- Betting Volumes: Bookmakers often adjust odds based on the volume and direction of bets, which can push odds away from their true value.
- Speed: Some bookmakers are slow to adjust to market changes, leaving temporary value gaps that savvy bettors can exploit.
Learn more about what causes value bets.
How to Find Value Bets
Value bets (or “plus EV” bets) can be found at both bookmakers and betting exchanges.
It’s important to understand that most bookmaker odds will produce a negative expected value (minus EV), since bookmakers embed a margin into their prices. In contrast, betting exchange odds are typically more accurate, creating a fair environment where the bettor is neither advantaged nor disadvantaged on average.
See how I broke exactly even from over 270 random football bets on Betfair.
However, because betting exchanges are more efficient, finding value there is highly competitive. That’s why many bettors focus on spotting opportunities at “soft” bookmakers, where odds are less tightly controlled. Still, value prices disappear quickly, requiring fast action.
Here are the main ways to find value bets:
1. Use Value Betting Software
Value betting software uses algorithms and mathematical models to identify value betting opportunities in real-time. These tools scan multiple bookmakers to find discrepancies where a value bet might exist. Importantly, they save bettors a great deal of time and significantly increase the chances of identifying profitable opportunities.
There aren’t many value betting tools that are (a) publicly available and (b) genuinely profitable. However, I was granted free access to review the ValueBetting product by RebelBetting, and I was extremely impressed. The ValueBetting software monitors price movements across a vast array of bookmakers, identifies plus EV selections the moment they appear, and displays them in a live feed. This product essentially provides users with all the tools necessary to generate a consistent profit.
Over a large sample, RebelBetting produces profits in line with expected value
I’ve also reviewed the Trademate Sports software, which is another excellent value betting product. Check out my full Value Bet Finder Review to learn more about both services.
2. Follow Legitimate Tipsters
Tipsters are individuals or groups who provide betting advice and predictions on various sporting events. They use expertise, experience, and data analysis to offer insights into upcoming matches, including key factors such as team form, injuries, and public sentiment.
Some tipsters specialise in finding value bets by identifying when the probability of a particular outcome is greater than the odds suggest. Bettors who follow reliable tipsters could potentially make a long-term profit.
However, it’s important to recognise that not all tipsters are trustworthy. Their predictions may not always be accurate, and some may be biased or have conflicts of interest. Choosing tipsters carefully and critically evaluating their results is essential.
See my recommended tipster sites — but also be aware of the risks involved in following tipsters.
3. Compile Your Own Odds
Bettors can use historical data, statistics, and other information to compile their own odds, estimating the true probability of an outcome. By doing this, they can compare their own “fair odds” with those offered by bookmakers to uncover value bets.
There are useful tools like the AceOdds Calculator that quickly convert percentage probabilities into decimal odds.
Compiling your own odds forms the basis for building a system or strategy — for example, targeting underdogs, or spotting markets where public sentiment skews prices. Advanced approaches also involve factoring in team and player statistics, form, injuries, and other relevant variables.
However, not all betting systems are effective, and some may even be counterproductive. It’s critical to test and refine any strategy thoroughly before risking real money.
Learn the basics of football betting systems.
4. Master Sports Trading Techniques
Sports trading offers another way to exploit value opportunities.
For example, if a trader believes a team is undervalued, they may back the team at favourable odds and later lay (sell) the same outcome at shorter odds once the market adjusts, locking in a profit. The same principle applies in reverse — laying first and backing later if prices move in the trader’s favour.
Sports trading requires quick decision-making and a solid strategy. However, those who master it can benefit from the flexibility of trading platforms and avoid bookmaker restrictions, as exchanges like Betfair generally welcome winners.
See betting sites that do not restrict winning accounts.
Challenges & Limitations
Value betting, like any betting strategy, comes with challenges. Here are some common limitations:
- Risk of losing streaks: Even with a +EV strategy, losing runs are inevitable and can be emotionally and financially difficult to manage.
- Limited opportunities: Finding value bets requires time, effort, and access to a wide range of markets and bookmakers.
- Bookmaker restrictions: Bookmakers restrict accounts of bettors who consistently find value, limiting your ability to place bets.
- Betting limits: Different bookmakers impose different staking limits, capping potential profits.
- Market efficiency: As awareness of value opportunities increases, the market adjusts, making it harder to find value.
- Reduced value in mainstream markets: Highly visible sports like football often have fewer value betting opportunities due to heavy analysis.
- Difficulty in estimating probabilities: Assessing the true probability of an outcome is complex and prone to error.
- Emotional control: Chasing losses or staking irresponsibly can destroy even a good betting strategy.
While value betting can be highly profitable, understanding these challenges and managing your approach carefully is essential for long-term success.
Final Thoughts
Value betting is one of the most powerful strategies available to sports bettors — but it’s also one of the most demanding. Success requires consistently identifying value opportunities, accurately estimating probabilities, managing your bankroll wisely, and staying disciplined through inevitable swings.
Although the principles are straightforward, applying them successfully demands skill, patience, and a long-term mindset.
If you want to further develop your understanding of value betting and learn how to quantify your expected value (EV), I recommend reading these posts:
- Understanding Your Strike Rate
- The Importance of a Large Sample Size
- Differentiating Luck From Skill In Betting
- How to Mathematically Verify Betting Results
The more you understand the mathematics and mindset behind value betting, the better prepared you’ll be to make informed bets — and to build a sustainable, profitable betting strategy over time.
Originally posted on 7th September 2016 and updated for 2025.
- Virgin Bet Review | Detailed Bookmaker Guide & Rating [2025] - May 5, 2025
- Betting Exchange | What’s A Betting Exchange? What Do They Offer? - May 5, 2025
- The Basics Of Football Prediction & Betting Systems - May 5, 2025
what about dombetting ? Have you tried this software?