There’s plenty of misconceptions about sports betting, so I decided to compile a list of my top 10 biggest sports betting myths.
Some views on sports betting are understandable while others are amusing, misguided, and just plain wrong. Let’s set the record straight.
Article Contents
1. The Bookmaker Always Gets It Right
Bookmakers don’t know the outcome of an event before it happens, nor do they always “get it right” with their odds. Those are myths.
What bookmakers are skilled at is offering odds at lower-than-fair prices, which ensures they capture a built-in margin for the service they provide.
But pricing discrepancies do occur. Odds don’t always perfectly reflect the true probability, and when that happens, opportunities arise for bettors — though spotting them is difficult and never a guaranteed path to success.
Learn more: How Do Bookmakers Earn? How Big Is Their Edge?
2. You Need to Be a Stats Genius to Succeed at Betting
Finding an edge in sports betting involves understanding probabilities and using them to your advantage. But that doesn’t mean you need to be a maths wizard.
There are tools and services that simplify the process, such as a value bet finder or a well-rated tipster. These can help bettors without requiring complex calculations on their part.
If you’re new, a good starting point is the Beginners’ Guide to Sports Betting.
3. There’s No Such Thing As Risk-Free Betting
Opportunities that are close to risk-free do exist, although they require discipline and don’t guarantee long-term profits.
The two main techniques are:
- Matched Betting. This involves converting bookmaker promotions and free bets into a profit. I’ve written a beginner’s guide to matched betting which covers services designed to help people use this method more effectively.
- Arbitrage Betting. This follows a similar process but uses differences in odds between bookmakers and exchanges. Learn more from my arbitrage betting guide, or see my list of arb finders.
Disclaimer: while often described as “risk-free”, neither method is without risk. Both depend on execution, terms and conditions, and changing market conditions. They’re not guaranteed sources of income.
4. It’s Impossible to Succeed at Betting
The majority of sports bettors lose in the long run, which is why betting is often called a “mug’s game”. But there are professionals who do succeed — usually operating quietly, sometimes as part of syndicates.
Like any competitive field, it takes hard work and persistence. Finding an advantage is difficult, and bookmakers limit or restrict accounts that show signs of consistent profitability. Producing a return on investment is far from easy.
You can read more about the realities in my article: Can You Make a Living From Sports Betting?
5. I’ll Win Because I Know What the Result Will Be
Unless a game is fixed, there’s no such thing as a guaranteed or “dead certain” result. Sport is unpredictable.
Some tipsters claim to have “inside information” about upcoming events. Even if that were true, it’s highly unlikely they’d openly sell it — if only to avoid legal issues. More often than not, such claims are exaggerated.
While some tipsters provide useful insights, many do not deliver on their promises. Always stick to reputable sources and keep expectations realistic.
Learn more: Can Tipsters Be Trusted?
6. There’s No Point Betting at High Odds. It Never Wins
It’s simply untrue that long shots never win. Odds represent probabilities, and unlikely events still occur — that’s the nature of sport.
That said, high-odds bets involve longer losing streaks and require more risk tolerance. Winning occasionally at big prices doesn’t necessarily mean you’re getting good value.
Remember: value can exist in both short and long odds. What matters is whether the price you’re offered reflects the true probability.
7. I Haven’t Won in a While. I’m Due One Now
Past results don’t guarantee future outcomes. Each new bet should be judged on the information and odds available at the time — not on whether you’ve recently won or lost.
Some bettors fall into the trap of chasing losses by raising their stakes or backing higher odds, thinking fortune will soon swing their way. This is a dangerous mindset.
Instead, maintain discipline and focus on responsible bankroll management.
8. Odds Don’t Matter. Just Pick More Winners
This is one of the biggest misconceptions. You can’t succeed long-term by simply picking winners and ignoring prices.
Take Real Madrid as an example. You could back them to win every league match and you’d probably be right most of the time. But the odds are set so low that, over a season, you’d almost certainly lose money.
It’s not about how often you win, but how much you’re paid when you do. Finding value in the odds is the foundation of any long-term approach.
For more on this, see: What Is Value Betting?
9. Strategies Don’t Work. Betting Is Always Down to Luck
Chance plays a role in every sporting outcome, but long-term results are shaped by the quality of your selections. Some outcomes are more likely than others, and that’s reflected in the odds.
The markets are highly efficient, but not perfect. Random betting will almost certainly lose over time, which is why structured approaches can help improve decision-making.
Having a clear strategy doesn’t eliminate risk, but it does give you a framework to make more informed decisions. Explore different betting strategies for ideas.
10. Bookies Have Better Odds Than Betting Exchanges
In most cases, betting exchanges provide higher prices because they match bets directly between users. It’s uncommon for a bookmaker to consistently offer better odds.
The idea that bookies always offer the “best odds” is often fuelled by affiliate marketing. In reality, you’ll usually find stronger value on exchanges like Betfair, although there can be exceptions depending on liquidity or bookmaker promotions.
That said, bookmakers do offer benefits beyond odds — such as bonuses, simpler interfaces, and wider coverage of markets. Each has its place depending on your goals.
Learn more: Bookmakers vs Betting Exchanges
Sports betting involves risk and most bettors lose over time. The myths above highlight why it’s important to approach betting realistically, manage your bankroll responsibly, and be sceptical of bold claims.
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