There’s plenty of misconceptions about sports betting, so I decided to compile a list of my top 10 biggest sports betting myths.
Some views on sports betting are understandable while others are amusing, misguided, and just plain wrong. Let’s set the record straight.
Article Contents
1. The Bookmaker Always Gets It Right
Bookmakers don’t know the outcome of an event before it happens, nor do they always “get it right” with their odds. Those are myths.
It’s fair to say that bookmakers are experts in offering odds at lower-than-fair prices. That’s how they capture a “fee” for the service they provide.
But price inaccuracies still constantly occur at bookmakers, which offers value to customers. It’s just a case of spotting them.
Learn more: How Do Bookmakers Earn? How Big Is Their Edge?
2. You Need To Be A Stats Genius To Earn From Betting
Finding an edge in sports betting involves making calculations and, in particular, using probabilities to your advantage. There’s no way of getting around that.
However, there are profitable ways to bet that require little or no calculations from the bettor. For instance, following the selections from a value bet finder or proven tipster.
So, no, you do not necessarily need to be a “stats guru” to become a profitable sports bettor.
3. There’s No Such Thing As Risk Free Betting
Believe it or not, risk-free sports betting opportunities do exist and many people profit from them.
The two risk-free techniques are:
- Matched Betting. This involves converting bookmaker promotions and free bets into a profit. I’ve written a detailed beginner’s guide to matched betting which recommends services that help subscribers to earn a monthly income using this technique.
- Arbitrage Betting. This follows a similar process to matched betting, but involves earning profits from the differences in odds at bookmakers and betting exchanges. Learn more from my arbitrage betting guide, or check out my list of recommended arb finders.
4. It’s Impossible to Earn From Betting
The majority of sports bettors lose in the long-run. So for the most part it’s, as we say, a “mug’s game”. But sports betting professionals exist and certainly do make a living from it. Most just tend to keep quiet about their occupation — perhaps in fear of giving away their secrets.
Like all other ventures, sports betting takes hard work. It’s difficult to find an advantage over the markets as the competition for odds is fierce, and bookmakers do their utmost to limit profitable bettors. So producing a consistent ROI doesn’t come easy.
You can learn more on how professionals succeed from my article: How To Make Money From Sports Betting
5. I’ll Win Because I Know What The Result Will Be
Unless a game is fixed, there’s no such thing as a guaranteed or “dead certain” result in sport. Anything can happen.
Some tipsters claim to have “inside information” about upcoming events. Even if they did, then it’s highly unlikely they would let anyone know about it so openly — if only to avoid a brush with the law. You’ve also got to wonder: would they really want to sell that knowledge?
A lot of tipsters claim to offer specialist knowledge and foresight — but the majority of them do not deliver on their promises. So it’s vitally important to use a reputable site to find a reliable tipster and to always maintain realistic expectations.
Learn more: Can Tipsters Be Trusted?
6. There’s No Point Betting At High Odds. It Doesn’t Ever Win
It’s obviously not true that high odds (long-shots) never win.
Odds reflect the probability — an approximation of the chance — of an event occurring. Inevitably an unusual event (i.e. an “upset”) will occur, but that’s life for you.
It’s true to say is that there’s “increasingly more risk“ as you bet on higher odds. Betting on high odds certainly requires more risk tolerance; you can go a long while without winning!
Importantly, you’re not necessarily making a good bet just because an outcome is more likely to strike a win. Value can occur in both short and long prices.
7. I Haven’t Won In A While. I’m Due One Now
Just because you haven’t won lately doesn’t mean you’re due a win.
You can hit winning and losing streaks, but ultimately every new bet you place will be independent from previous ones (in most cases, anyway). This means that your previous results will not influence your upcoming results. The losing streak may continue.
Some gamblers take the supersticous approach of raising their stakes or betting at higher odds when they feel that a win is ‘due’. That’s a dangerous way to go.
Don’t count on a win to offset losses, and always maintain stakes that you’re prepared to lose.
8. Odds Don’t Matter. Just Pick More Winners
This line of thinking is one of the main reasons why bookmakers continue to thrive. You can’t just “pick more winners” and disregard the value of the odds. The odds matter more than anything else.
Think of it this way: if you wanted to pick more winners you could back Real Madrid to win every league match. Right?
Of course, you’ll win very frequently by backing Madrid every game. But that still doesn’t generate a profit long-term — because the odds stand in the way. The prices are too low.
It’s not about how often you win, it’s about how much you are paid out when you do.
Finding value is paramount to sports betting success. So my advice to any beginner is to always focus on finding a good price before anything else. Over time your advantage or disadvantage over the bookmaker will eventually reveal itself in your results.
9. Strategies Don’t Work. Betting Is Always Down To Luck
Nobody can deny that chance plays its part in sporting results. Anything can happen. But long-term success in sports betting is not dictated by chance; it’s dictated by the selections you make.
Some sporting outcomes stand a much better chance than others. These differences are represented in the betting odds available. Public opinion, both professional and recreational, shapes these odds, making them increasingly accurate as the event approaches. This means that the markets are”tight” — making it near-impossible to earn a profit by randomly making selections.
And since you cannot simply rely on luck to make a profit from sports betting, you need a smart way to select bets with odds in your favour. In other words, you need a strategy.
10. Bookies Have Better Odds Than Betting Exchanges
It’s alarming how many times I’ve heard this or seen it written online.
Bookmakers rarely have better odds than the betting exchanges. In fact they do everything they can to keep their odds lower to avoid leaving themselves open to arbitrage betting.
I think this false belief stems from misinformation provided by gambling affiliates. It’s not uncommon to read that a specific bookmaker is offering the “best odds” for an event — when in fact you can head straight over to the Betfair exchange and instantly find better value 99%+ of the time.
Furthermore, the betting exchange odds aren’t always shown on popular odds comparison sites; probably because it only serves to discredit the bookies those sites are partnered with. The omission leaves many bettors misinformed.
However, despite their lower odds, I should point out that there are several advantages that bookies offer over the betting exchanges.
Sports betting sites and affiliates are under increasing pressure to provide accurate information about gambling and the risks involved. In the future we can expect less misinformation. But for now I hope this article has helped to debunk some of the most common sports betting myths.
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