Results swing. Prices move too — and where you take your price is half the game. This month: why the starting price (SP) — the final odds before the event begins — is the best check on your betting process.
Why the starting price actually matters
By the start of a sports event, most information — team news, weather, late opinions, sharper money — is baked into the odds. For popular markets (e.g., Premier League football) there’s usually very little value left by then. However, if you regularly take better odds than the starting price, you’re likely finding value. That’s why pros track this “beat-the-start” measure (often discussed as CLV/closing value) rather than short-term results like last weekend’s scoreline.
Example: you back at 2.10; the event starts with the market at 1.95. Whatever happens, you secured a better price than the market’s final view. Repeat that and variance starts working with you.
I’m often asked whether a strategy that doesn’t beat the starting price can still win in the long run. It’s not impossible — short runs can flatter — but over time it’s far less likely to succeed than a strategy that consistently secures better than the starting price. If the market’s final view keeps showing your odds were worse, that’s a nudge to review your selection process.
Why beating the start price works
What makes the starting price the benchmark?
Markets move when new information arrives. If a key player is ruled out just before a match, that team’s chance drops and their odds lengthen (drift). Anyone who backed them earlier now holds a worse price than the consensus. Backed the opponents? Their odds usually shorten (steam) as their chance improves — your position improved.
The same push-and-pull happens with weather, line-ups, track bias and other factors. In liquid markets, that consensus is typically efficient by the start — so consistently beating it is a strong sign you had an edge.
Importantly, having an edge doesn’t mean your next bet will win. It means that when you do win, you’re paid more than a fair price for that outcome (positive expected value). Over time, that “paid-better-than-fair” gap is what drives profit — not any single result.
How to beat the starting price (without guesswork)
- Pick your moment: In liquid leagues, early prices can be soft; in thinner markets, late team news moves everything. Enter when your information is fresh and your edge is real.
- Don’t chase a shortening price (“steam”): If odds have just fallen, you’re likely taking a low-value price. Unless your reasoning beats the news that moved it, let it go.
- Shop properly: Even a small price step worse across bookmakers adds up. Keep multiple accounts (within your legal jurisdiction) and compare odds before you place the bet.
- Use the right betting site: If you’re opposing the crowd or want to trade/lay, an exchange can offer the better price and flexibility. If a bookmaker is slow to move or running a price boost/promo, you may get the top price there — just watch for stake limits.
What to measure (and a sensible target)
- Your taken odds vs the starting price on every selection.
- Beat-the-starting-price rate: the percentage of bets where your odds are better than the market’s starting price.
- Average edge (optional):
(Your odds − Starting price) ÷ Starting price.
Over a meaningful sample, aim to beat the starting price on well over 50% of selections. Don’t judge anything on a fortnight — let the numbers breathe.
Find the best price (quick picks)
| Tool | Why use it |
|---|---|
| Odds comparison | Find the top price quickly across bookmakers. |
| Exchanges vs bookmakers | Understand when to use each for price, limits, and liquidity. |
| Who pays best? | See which bookies consistently post stronger prices. |
Go deeper: Beating the Closing Line (full guide), Sample size: how much is enough?, Wisdom of Crowds — why markets tend to be right by the start.
Quick glossary
- Starting price (SP): the last odds/price before the event begins (also called the closing price).
- Steam: odds shorten quickly (e.g., 2.20 → 1.95) — often news-driven. Chasing steam means taking a worse price after the move.
- Drift: odds lengthen (e.g., 1.90 → 2.20). Can be value or a red flag — context matters.
- Liquidity: how much can be staked without moving the price (usually higher on major leagues/meetings).
- Edge: the difference between the true probability and the price/odds you take.
- September 2025: Stop Chasing Results — Start Beating the Price - September 4, 2025
- Curaçao Gaming Authority (CGA) - September 4, 2025
- Betfred Review | Examining The Bookmaker’s Overall Performance [2025] - September 4, 2025