Sports fans love a good underdog story — the unfancied team defying expectations to pull off a shock win. It’s the kind of moment that makes headlines and keeps fans dreaming. But when it comes to betting, how often do those long-shot wins really happen? And more importantly: is it ever smart to bet on them?
Let’s break down the logic behind underdog betting, the risks involved, and when — if ever — it makes sense to back the outsider.
What Is an Underdog Bet?
An underdog bet is placed on the less likely outcome — usually the team or player that the public expects to lose. These bets come with longer odds, which means a higher potential return but a lower chance of success.
If you’re considering placing this kind of bet, it’s essential to use a sportsbook that offers fair pricing. Well-established operators like Betway provide strong market coverage and consistently competitive odds, which means you’re more likely to get a better payout compared to less competitive sites — especially important when backing outsiders.
The value you bet at matters more at longer prices, as seemingly small differences in odds can have a huge impact. For example, a £50 stake at odds of 14.0 returns £700, while the same bet at 16.0 returns £800 — a £100 difference for the exact same outcome. That kind of margin adds up fast, especially if underdog bets are a regular part of your approach.
While the big payouts can be enticing, successful underdog betting depends on spotting value — not blindly hoping for a miracle.
When Underdog Bets Aren’t Worth It
Underdog bets have their appeal — but there are clear situations where they’re best avoided. Here are the most common reasons why betting on outsiders can do more harm than good.
1. Emotion-Driven Decisions
Backing a favourite team out of loyalty, betting for sentimental reasons, or chasing losses with long shots rarely leads to a positive outcome in the long run. Underdog bets shouldn’t be based on emotion, but on a clear understanding of the sports you’re betting on. Without a calculated edge, these bets are more likely to offer poor value — and often lead to frustration.
2. Low Tolerance for Losing Streaks
By nature, underdogs lose more often than they win. If you’re not prepared for frequent losses, betting on outsiders can quickly become discouraging. The volatility is real — and unrealistic expectations can lead to raising stakes, or abandoning a sound strategy too soon.
3. Staking Too Aggressively
Underdog bets carry more risk, so they require more cautious bankroll management. Large stakes on low-probability outcomes can lead to rapid losses. To stay in control, many bettors:
- Use smaller stakes for long shots,
- Cap the odds they’re willing to back (e.g. no higher than 10.0),
- Avoid using underdogs to “win back” previous losses.
4. No Consideration of Value
Simply “fancying” an outcome without appraising the odds is a major oversight by many bettors. Betting without considering value — that is, whether the price at least fairly reflects the chance of winning — is a common cause of long-term losses, even when some bets land.
In short, underdog bets are not inherently wrong — but they require logic, patience, and strict stake management. Without that foundation, they’re far more likely to backfire than pay off.
When Underdog Bets Can Be Worth It
Underdog bets start to make more sense when you believe the market has misjudged the likelihood of the outcome. Bookmakers use complex models to set prices, but odds are also influenced by public sentiment, betting volume, and perception — and that’s where opportunities can arise.
1. Market Bias Creates Value
Sometimes the favourite’s odds are shorter than they should be — not because of their actual chance of winning, but because of public perception and betting patterns. This can create hidden value on the underdog. Common examples include:
- Popular teams — Clubs with large followings often attract heavy betting, which shortens their price regardless of form or context.
- National favourites — A classic case is England in international football. Patriotic betting in the UK often shortens England’s odds beyond their true probability, inflating the price on their opponents.
- Short-term form streaks — A few recent wins can inflate a team’s reputation, even if underlying performance doesn’t justify it. This can push their odds too low and leave the underdog undervalued.
2. Overlooked Match Factors
There are times when the market misses or underestimates factors that could affect the outcome. These include:
- Injuries, suspensions, or tactical mismatches that the public hasn’t fully factored in.
- Motivation mismatches — For example, an underdog needing a result in a crucial match, while the favourite rotates their squad.
- Venue mispricing — Home advantage may be wrongly assumed, especially at neutral grounds or in closed-door games.
3. Style and Structure Matter
In some cases, the underdog’s playing style can frustrate or counter the strengths of the favourite. For example, a defensive or counter-attacking side may disrupt a possession-heavy team that struggles to break down compact defences.
Similarly, in low-scoring sports like football or MMA, one key moment can swing the outcome — giving underdogs a much better chance than they’d have in sports like basketball, where favourites usually pull away over time.
4. Market Movement from Sharp Money
If an underdog’s odds start to shorten across multiple bookmakers, it could suggest that professional bettors are backing them. While this isn’t a guarantee, it’s often a sign that the team or player is stronger than the initial market implied — even if they remain the outsider.
Of course, there will always be outliers — those rare, unexplainable moments when a team defies logic and expectation. These are the flashes of underdog spirit that no model or metric can fully predict — and they’re part of what keeps sport so compelling.
Final Thoughts: Should You Bet on the Underdog?
Underdog bets have their place — but only when approached with discipline, logic, and realistic expectations. While the rewards can be bigger, so too are the risks and the likelihood of extended losing runs.
The most sensible time to consider them is when the odds clearly don’t reflect the true chances — not when you’re chasing excitement, betting on loyalty, or trying to turn things around quickly.
If you’re betting casually, backing an underdog can add interest to a game. But if you’re taking a more strategic view, treat these bets with caution — and only act when the numbers support your decision.
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