Last month we focused on beating the starting price. This month is about survival: bankroll, variance, and staking.
You can read a sports betting market well and still bust out if your stakes are too big. The fix is simple — ring-fence a bankroll (a separate pot just for betting) and follow clear staking rules so your bets are given enough time to produce their expected results.
In a few minutes you’ll learn how to set your unit (stake size), why swings aren’t a verdict on your skill as a bettor, and what to track to stay disciplined.
Article Contents
Bankroll: set it up and size it right
Your bankroll is working capital. Decide what you can afford to lose, set it aside, and treat it like a business float.
Then choose a sensible unit — typically 1–2% of the bank per bet (or 0.5–1% if you’re regularly betting at bigger odds). Small, consistent stakes cushion normal losing runs and stop one bad week from ending your season.
Smaller units = smaller swings.
With a £1,000 bank, a 5% stake that hits five straight losses drops you to ~£774 (−22.6%). The same run at 1% leaves you ~£951 (−4.9%). Same selections. Very different pain.
Size for survival so you’re still around long enough for good bets to show their value.
Variance: swings aren’t a verdict on your skill
Results will swing. Underdogs can come off consecutively. Favourites can hit a rough patch. That’s variance — not proof you’ve suddenly become “brilliant” or “clueless”.
A good bet doesn’t guarantee a win; it means that when you do win, you’re paid more than a fair price (positive expected value). Over time, positive-EV bets trend up. Negative-EV bets don’t — they might look fine for a while, but the long-term drift is down. Judge your process by the prices you take, not last weekend’s winners.
Think casinos. The house regularly loses at roulette or blackjack over a short spell. But the odds are in its favour, and over many spins/hands the results settle towards expectation and the house finishes ahead. Sports betting is no different: without an edge, long-term success is very unlikely.
Staking: control risk — don’t chase profit
Here’s the key distinction:
- Staking decides risk and the “bumpiness” of your path. Bigger or smaller stakes change how fast your bankroll rises or falls and how deep your drawdowns feel.
- Long-term profit comes from price (having an edge), not from stake size. If your odds are better than the true chance, your expected return is positive. If they’re worse, it’s negative — no staking plan can flip that (−) sign.
Here’s a real-world example: imagine a fair coin priced at 1.90 (implies 52.6% chance) on a 50/50 event. That’s a negative-EV bet. You can double after losses or halve after wins — it doesn’t change the maths!
If you’re overpaying with a bad price, your long-run expectation stays negative. Staking only changes volatility; it can’t turn a bad price into a good one.
How to stake (without overthinking it)
- Flat (level) staking: the same unit on every bet (e.g., 1–2% of bank). Keeps emotion out and results steady.
- Percentage of bank: a fixed % of the current bank (e.g., 1–3%), so stakes shrink during downswings and grow during upswings.
- Fractional Kelly (advanced): if you can estimate edge reliably, use a fraction of Kelly (25–50%) to scale with value.
- Avoid loss-recovery/Martingale — those systems look clever until they wipe you out.
A simple safety valve: if your bank drops 15–25% from its peak, trim the unit size (e.g., cut by a third) and reassess. That’s discipline, not defeat.
Make your analysis fair
When you test or review a strategy, keep it honest: use equal stakes or equal risk so one fortunate (or unfortunate) large bet doesn’t skew the picture.
Judge over a meaningful sample — think hundreds of bets, not weekends. We’ll cover fair testing — and Luck vs Skill — in a future issue.
What to track (so you don’t fool yourself)
- Your staking rule (and whether you actually followed it).
- Strike rate + average odds (together they hint at realistic losing-run lengths).
- Drawdown (worst peak-to-trough fall — if it rattles you, your unit is too big).
Recommended reads (quick picks)
| Resource | Why read it |
|---|---|
| Bankroll Management & Staking Plans Guide | Set up your bank and pick a staking rule. |
| Variance in Sports Betting | Understand swings and why they happen. |
| Sample Size: How Much Is Enough? | Avoid false conclusions; think in big numbers. |
| Betting Strike Rate Explained | Link win rate with odds to set expectations. |
Quick glossary
- Bankroll: your dedicated betting fund; keep it separate from everyday money.
- Unit: your standard stake (often 1–2% of the bankroll).
- Variance: natural swings in results, even with good bets.
- Drawdown: a peak-to-trough fall in your bankroll; a reality check on stake size.
- Expected value (EV): whether a price pays more (or less) than the true chance.
- Kelly Criterion: stake sizing based on edge; powerful if your probabilities are accurate.
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