Strategy

The ‘Fickle Football Fan Formula’ produces bet selections based on how fans feel. The model aims to determine whether public sentiment is biased towards recent results (hence ‘fickle’), and if that impacts the accuracy of the match odds markets.

The ‘Mug Betting Experiment’ mimicked how regular sports bettors bet on football. The ‘Mug Bets’ were based entirely on opinion, without any statistical analysis. The experiment was run for (almost) the entire 2016/17 Premier League Football season, with all bets placed on the Betfair exchange. Remarkably, it broke completely even with a 0.00% ROI. The end result serves as an example of what casual punters could expect to achieve over the mid-to-long-term.

I tracked my progress from 2,000+ bets recommended by the Trademate Sports value betting software. The Trademate Sports product calculates the true odds sporting outcomes and provides the tools necessary to identify profitable opportunities in the global sport betting markets. Their algorithm runs 24 hours a day, 365 days per year across Football, NFL, NBA, MLB, Handball, etc.